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Here is the latest from the NWS until we ramp operations again this fall--we'll have much more detailed and customized discussions and forecasts then...

REGIONAL DISCUSSION;

--> A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES, MAINLY ABOVE 4,000 FEET, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE MT BAKER.

--> TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BELOW, TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH MONDAY.

CENTRAL MONTANA/ YELLOWSTONE SPECIFIC, AND LONGER RANGE;

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERNS AS THE RECENT 
COOL AND UNSETTLED ONE BECOMES A WARMER AND DRIER ONE. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
EXPECT TO SEE MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE 
DETAILS OF THESE DISTURBANCES BUT APPEARS THE MAIN ONE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA 
LATE TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN ITS WAKE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE 
INTO THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ON 
TUESDAY MODELS BRING YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES DURING 
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS INDICATING ESPECIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAVE DROPPED THE 
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER WEATHER 
DISTURBANCE. MODELS STILL INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL COOL ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT THAT THERE 
COULD BE SOME SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT 
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT TREND TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN 
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PERIOD BEGINS WITH FLAT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION 
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY SOME RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE REGION AS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD. 
THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...BRING 
PACIFIC ENERGY INTO THE NW U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA BY FRIDAY...FOR A RETURN TO WESTERLY 
FLOW. OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST IS DRY WITH JUST A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED 
LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE 
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE 
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE LOWERING SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS 
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AIRMASS WILL BE PRETTY 
DRY WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING UP INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THUS...WILL GO WITH 
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH THE REST OF THE 
REGION BEING MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

For those who want to know, it looks like an El Nino SST pattern is developing and strengthening. We would expect more moisture for thunderstorms and showers this summer, and Pacific Hurricane activity with this development. We do not think this will be a dry summer compared to average, in fact it may be a bit wet. CM