Black Mountain (Base: 1,250', Top: 3,303')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, February 8, 2012
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OVERALL SITUATION--Uneventful through the rest of the week with a quiet and dry westerly flow. Low pressure drops down from Canada this weekend--a cold front early Saturday (very cold conditions this weekend) followed by potential upslope snowfall for northern resorts Sunday/Monday. Other than that, no big storms as high pressure builds back in early next week.
Today and Thursday--Dry and Mainly Sunny--High pressure once again (dry and sunny) thru midweek as a weak upper level disturbance skims by to our south (some high/mid level clouds skim by)--west breezes today. A touch warmer Thurs with continued dry westerly breezes and a good amount of sun.
Friday thru Sunday--Cold Weekend--Dry and still mainly sunny with steady temps Friday (increasing southwesterly winds) before another cold front (limited moisture again) drops in from the northwest overnight--light snow showers and only minor accumulations overnight/early Saturday--gusty winds and clearing to colder temps. Straight northerly winds and significant windchills will be uncomfortable for some, especially the kiddos (layer up, face protection, frequent lodge breaks). Watching offshore moisture/disturbance but so far just out of reach and not a factor (sorry). Otherwise, still cold into Sunday with diminishing northwesterly winds. Upper level low pressure drops in closer from the north with upslope snow setting up for mainly northern resorts later Sunday and into Monday (light/moderate accumulations possible).
Monday--Upslope snows for northern resorts gradually fade with a drier westerly flow shifting back in--CT
Wednesday Feb 08, 2012
Hi 29°f / -2°c (base)
Lo 10°f / -12°c (base)
Sky Condition:
More high pressure--partly to mostly sunny (some high/mid clouds) and dry with steady cool temps
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
Light and variable base breezes...summit breezes 15-20mph
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Thursday Feb 09, 2012
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base)
Lo 15°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mainly sunny and dry conditions holding--a bit warmer with west breezes picking up
Precipitation:
Mainly dry
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
W base breezes 10-15mph...summit winds 25-30mph
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Friday Feb 10, 2012
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base)
Lo 13°f / -11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mainly sunny AM--increasing winds and PM clouds--overnight snow showers
Precipitation:
Dry during the day--30-40% chance of scattered snow showers overnight
Snow Potential
Trace to a few inches overnight possible
Wind:
W-SW base winds 10-20mph...summit winds 30-35mph
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Saturday Feb 11, 2012
Hi 14°f / -10°c (base)
Lo -4°f / -20°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Lingering clouds and a few snow showers--turning colder with windchills (summit esp)
Precipitation:
30-40% chance of residual light snow showers
Snow Potential
An additional trace to a couple of inches possible
Wind:
N base breezes 10-15mph...summit winds N 20-30mph (severe windchills)
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Sunday Feb 12, 2012
Hi 14°f / -10°c (base)
Lo -4°f / -20°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly sunny to start then clouding up--still very cold with northerly winds--upslope snow showers developing mainly PM/overnight
Precipitation:
Dry to start then 40-50% chance of moderate (possibly heavy) upslope snow/showers developing late/overnight
Snow Potential
Accumulations mainly overnight/early Monday--light/moderate accumulations possible of about half a foot
Wind:
N-NW base winds 10-20mph...summit winds 25-35mph, higher gusts and continued severe summit windchills (some blowing snow PM)
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Monday Feb 13, 2012
Hi 21°f / -6°c (base)
Lo 8°f / -13°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and still cold with light snow/showers gradually fading and lighter winds
Precipitation:
40-50% chance of mainly AM lighter snow tapering off
Snow Potential
Light additional accumulations of a few inches
Wind:
Lighter W base winds around 10mph...summit winds 20-30mph
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Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 18
Upper troughing to our north from the weekend may start to lift northward and allow more high pressure ridging over us through early next week. That would diminish our storm chances and warm us up a bit more. We could also be seeing upper troughing setting up through the west and pulling in more storms from the west later in the week. Storms would be weakened and not as cold (mixing again). The track may shift eastward a bit next weekend with a slightly better shot of more snowfall and less mixing with approaching storms (could be interesting)--CT
