Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

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-- Final  WINTER OUTLOOK posted in Long Range-----  11/21

 
     SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS-- UPDATED FOR Saturday, March 20th at 7:30am---

Heaviest snowfall winding down across mainly parts of IA, as this is where the heaviest  accumulation took place with nearly 7" in Des Moines (6.8') with avg totals in the southern half of IA being 4-6". Extreme SW Wisconsin saw around 4"  with 3.5" reported in Madison with it still lightly snowing.  Saturday looks close  to bring the first "ice" day for many, (max temp below 32F) over the fresh snow cover  and then a rather cold Sunday morning compared to what we have been used to with temperatures in the low 20's to high teens in the South and East to  low teens and single digits in the North. Expect temperatures to slowly moderate on Monday and Tuesday of next week gaining about 2-3 degrees a day (4-5) where there is no snowcover  before the next potential system by mid to late week which may produce accumulating snows over a larger area, especially in the North in MN and WI.

 links listed below comparing  various winter outlooks to actually what happened-----------------------------

NOAA outlook published in Mid-OCT 2009-- (not changed even in Mid-NOV)----

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

Actual outcome of winter temperatures--

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Actual outcome of winter precip-- (mostly snow for a majority of the  region with near record amounts in the south and below normal in the East and Far North).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Precipitation&type=2&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Written by snowforecast.com on NOV 21st 2009-

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! JB

Long Range-  potential for accumulating snow fall over the North for the 25-26. Temperatures look to be below normal, especially in the North and East. This time period will likely have the last decent skiing of the season for the resorts that are still operating as the pattern looks to shift to full blown spring by Easter.

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/21 . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB