6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, February 8, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 10, High 37 (Highest ~ 58 on February 09, 1996, Lowest ~ -25 on February 07, 1989)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 04, High 33 (Highest ~ 51 on February 09, 1987, Lowest ~ -31 on February 07, 1989)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low -03, High 21

::: LIGHT SNOW TODAY/ ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND/ LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY (NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING BUSY) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 8th...Today --LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT-- ->  The low pressure system currently dropping some showers across southern California has pushed some moisture eastward into Utah and now working into Colorado, with light snow showers expected to develop this afternoon and especially tonight due to this moisture and some limited instability. Some areas will see 3+" of snowfall mainly overnight.

Thursday --SOME CLOUDS AND SUN MIXED, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS-- ->  Clouds decrease and we have some lingering isolated snow showers as moisture lingers, and we are under an unsettled northwest flow aloft on the east side of a high pressure ridge. At the same time, low pressure deepens across the upper Midwest/ Great Lakes.

Friday and Saturday --PARTLY CLOUDY, SLOW WARMING-- ->  High pressure ridging is expected across the area, with some warming expected each day. A storm is expected to approach Saturday night, with light snow developing mainly by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday --LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW-- -> Colder temperatures and snow are expected each day due to 2 upper-level weather disturbances passing through. The second storm may be a bit stronger, with more snowfall for all areas Monday than on Sunday. CM

 

Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 34°f / 1°c (base) Lo 6°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly to mostly cloudy and chilly, with isolated snow showers. Less wind is expected. Precipitation: 20% chance for snow. Snow Potential A trace. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20mph.	Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 7°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with northwest breezes/ winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 11°f / -12°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with not a lot of wind. Clouds increase overnight, with snow showers developing mainly Sunday morning. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow after midnight. Snow Potential Please see Sundays totals. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to W at 10-20mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 32°f / 0°c (base) Lo 10°f / -12°c (base) Sky Condition: Cloudy with continued light snow showers off and on through the day and evening. Most snow ends overnight, or becomes isolated. Precipitation: 50% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.	Monday Feb 13, 2012 Hi 31°f / -1°c (base) Lo 7°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Slight Chance of Light Snow Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of snow Wind: WSW at up to 5 mph.	Tuesday Feb 14, 2012 Hi 28°f / -2°c (base) Lo 6°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Chance of Light Snow Precipitation: 40% Chance of snow Wind: W at up to 5 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17

--We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up. Next Tuesday (14th) we have another shot at snow (probably light), then again next Thursday and Friday (16/ 17th) we may see more snowfall from another low pressure system. Some of these storms could be significant as high pressure ridging retrogrades westward and allows more energy and moisture in across the area, but the track of each system is still uncertain. More information is coming.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM