6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Tuesday, February 7, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 10, High 37 (Highest ~ 58 on February 09, 1996, Lowest ~ -25 on February 07, 1989)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 04, High 33 (Highest ~ 51 on February 09, 1987, Lowest ~ -31 on February 07, 1989)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low -03, High 21

::: PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY/ LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND/ LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 7th...Today --CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY-- -> Low pressure scoots eastward onto the plains with clearing skies this morning, and partly cloudy skies during the day. This is as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the west. Breezes increase out of the west and northwest due to this transition, otherwise we see plenty of sunshine and chilly temperatures with some fresh snow on the ground.

Wednesday --PARTLY CLOUDY, THEN LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT-- ->  The low pressure system currently dropping some showers across central California is expected to push some moisture slowly eastward into Utah and Colorado, with light snow showers developing mainly Wednesday night due to this moisture and some instability.

Thursday --SOME CLOUDS AND SUN MIXED, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS-- ->  Clouds decrease and we have some lingering isolated snow showers as moisture lingers, and we are under an unsettled northwest flow aloft on the east side of a high pressure ridge. At the same time, low pressure deepens across the upper Midwest/ Great Lakes.

Friday and Saturday --PARTLY CLOUDY, SLOW WARMING-- ->  High pressure ridging is expected across the area, with some warming expected each day. A storm is expected to approach Saturday night, with light snow developing mainly by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday --LIGHT SNOW-- -> Colder temperatures and snow are expected each day due to 2 upper-level weather disturbances passing through. The second storm may be a bit stronger, with more snowfall for all areas Monday than on Sunday. CM

 

Tuesday Feb 07, 2012 Hi 31°f / -1°c (base) Lo 6°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and not as chilly with clearing to partly cloudy skies, and west winds across the mountain. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to SW/ NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Wednesday Feb 08, 2012 Hi 36°f / 2°c (base) Lo 15°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and chilly during the day, with some west winds. Clouds increase and light snow showers develop overnight. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow overnight. Snow Potential A trace to 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 36°f / 2°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and chilly, with less wind expected. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 4-12mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20mph.
Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 37°f / 3°c (base) Lo 15°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with northwest breezes/ winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 38°f / 3°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with not a lot of wind. Clouds increase overnight, with mostly isolated snow showers developing mainly Sunday morning. Precipitation: 20% chance for snow after midnight. Snow Potential Please see Sundays totals. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.	Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 36°f / 2°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers off and on through the day and evening. Snow ends overnight. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 13 to 16

--We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up. Next Tuesday (14th) we have another shot at snow (probably light), then again next Thursday and Friday (16/ 17th) we may see more snowfall from another low pressure system. We will update when more info is available.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM