6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Tuesday, February 7, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 18, High 39 (Highest ~ 54 on February 01, 1995, Lowest ~ -04 on January 30, in 1933) ::: COOLER + LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY/ MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ::: DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 7th...Today--CHANCE FOR SNOW-- -> A low pressure system moves in off of the Pacific, and is on a southward path as moisture enters the area from the southwest. What this does is take the eastward push of winds (for orographic lifting) and makes it a mostly weak northward push of air. We expect some help from instability aloft, but not much. Light snow is then expected, off and on today and mostly ending tonight as this low moves south toward Baja CA.
Wednesday through Friday--BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY-- -> Low pressure moves south with mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, then more sun Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system (not strong) will approach on the coastline on Friday. CM
Tuesday
Feb 07, 2012
Hi 40°f / 28°f (base/top) Lo 28°f / 19°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and cooler with off/ on light snow showers during the day and decreasing overnight (mostly isolated snow showers overnight).
Precipitation:
50% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 inch of snowfall.
Wind:
S at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; S at 10-20mph.
Wednesday
Feb 08, 2012
Hi 43°f / 29°f (base/top) Lo 18°f / 20°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Clearing to partly cloudy and cool with north breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Becoming NE at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20mph.
Thursday
Feb 09, 2012
Hi 51°f / 40°f (base/top) Lo 17°f / 28°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and milder with continued north breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
NE at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20mph.
Friday
Feb 10, 2012
Hi 52°f / 41°f (base/top) Lo 19°f / 30°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and mild with breezes shifting (approaching low pressure system).
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 10-20mph.
Saturday
Feb 11, 2012
Hi 44°f / 7°c (base) Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
ENE at up to 5 mph.
Sunday
Feb 12, 2012
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base) Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
E at up to 0 mph.
Long range forecast / discussion...February 13 to 16
--Overall, high pressure ridging aloft across the west holds until mid February. Despite this ridge, a low pressure system moves in Saturday and again late Sunday/ Monday with a chance for snow. We would expect light snow ( < 4") from these systems, unless they move through further south, and in that case we could see more. High pressure ridges back in after this system, holding across the western US. We are watching for better potential snow as we move into the 2nd half of February.
We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter period, weakening now and through the spring, into the summer. CM
