All of us at Snowforecast.com thank you for your support this season!  We wouldn't have been able to do this without your viewership.  Our reputation for customized, skier/boarder friendly forecasts is growing but we still need to get the word out to keep us going for next season.  Please contact your favorite resort and put in a good word for us!

 Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

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   Snowforecast has wrapped up  it's forecast's for the winter of 09-10. We thank you for your viewership. Listed below is a summer outlook published on 5/5/10. Questions pertaining to actual forecasts issued during the winter or weather questions in general (climate etc.)  for this region can be sent to : jeff@snowforecast.com,, or for advertising and other questions to chris@snowforecast.com.

   Summer Outlook 2010-

Will not get into technical details, but expect a warmer  than avg summer across nearly the entire forecast area off MN,WI,MI and IA.   June of the 3 summer months has the greatest chance of being below normal and August the strongest of being above normal and significantly at that likely extending the summer well into September.  Rainfall looks to be below normal but the greatest chance of an above normal month looks to be June and August likely quite dry.Will have the first "long range" look at the next winter 2010-11 sometime mid to late summer. 

Following is brief re-cap of last winter-         

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NOAA outlook published in Mid-OCT 2009-- (not changed even in Mid-NOV)----

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

Actual outcome of winter temperatures--

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Actual outcome of winter precip-- (mostly snow for a majority of the  region with near record amounts in the south and below normal in the East and Far North).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Precipitation&type=2&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Long Range-- very little chances for accumulating snowfall (if any) in the next 10-14 days. Chances are that by Easter,, Spring will have arrived in force and be along to stay for some time with much above normal temperatures for most of the region. This  will likely be one of the last long range outlooks if the above comes around to happening., as most ski resorts will likely be forced to close 7-10 days earlier than expected.

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/21 . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB