6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, November 6, 2009
PLEASE NOTE: The temperatures shown for "base" (if "base/ top" is not displayed) are more of a mid mountain temperature forecast. We forecast base and top temperatures plus more detail for our partner resorts like Winter Park, Aspen-Snowmass, and the Vail Resorts.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR; -At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 23, High 48(Highest ~ 69 in 1999, Lowest ~ 01 in 2000) -At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 16, High 42(Highest ~ 60 in 1999, Lowest ~ (-)06 in 2000) -At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 09, High 31
SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6th at 10:35am..Today-> Strong low pressure is moving into the northwest US, with up to 2 feet of snow in the Cascades of Washington and less as you go east. For Colorado, sunny skies and increased west winds continue under weakening high pressure ridging aloft. A weak weather disturbance moves through tonight with a brief shot of light snow mainly across the upper ridges near the divide, north of the I-70, and partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Warm and windy, with strong winds across the upper ridges.
Saturday -> More low pressure continues across the northwest US, with rain and snow there. A southwest flow aloft carries in middle and high cloudiness (otherwise mostly sunny), with continued west winds and relatively warm temperatures.
Sunday and Monday -> A weakening storm moving through to our north (across Montana) is not expected to do much for us except drop temperatures back into improved top to bottom snow making range (Sunday night and through Tuesday morning). We expect daytime temperatures in the 30's for Summit and Grand County resort base areas by Monday, low 40's or so for Aspen, and temperatures in the 20's for a high at resort summits. Some clouds and west winds are expected, along with light snow flurries (Aspen) to scattered light snow showers (Winter Park) mainly Sunday evening through Monday morning. We do not really expect accumulations.
Next Tuesday -> Brief high pressure aloft and warming...mostly sunny and breezy.
Next Wednesday and Thursday -> A stronger system breaks through from the Pacific, with colder air contained within. Mostly light accumulations are possible starting Wednesday and lasting through Thursday, plus much colder air on Thursday.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Saturday
Nov 07, 2009
Hi 42°f / 6°c (base) Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and a bit warmer with less wind, out ahead of a low pressure system approaching.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at 4 to 12mph, becoming SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph.
Sunday
Nov 08, 2009
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 20°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and mild with continued west winds. Light and scattered snow showers develop in the evening and overnight.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow overnight.
Snow Potential
No accumulation (a trace, less than 1 inch of accumulation).
Wind:
Variable at 4 to 12mph, becoming SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; SW at 20 to 30 gusts to 45mph.
Monday
Nov 09, 2009
Hi 32°f / 0°c (base) Lo 20°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly cloudy and colder with less wind and light/ scattered snow showers through the morning hours. Skies begin to clear out in the afternoon.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
No accumulation expected (trace).
Wind:
NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
Tuesday
Nov 10, 2009
Hi 26°f / -3°c (base) Lo 19°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and milder, with increasing southwest winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
SW at 5 to 15mph, increasing to SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph.
Wednesday
Nov 11, 2009
Hi 37°f / 3°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Becoming cloudy and cooler, with strong west winds developing (especially up top), and developing mostly light snow showers. Snow levels run near 9,000 feet during the day. Much colder air moves in overnight.
Precipitation:
50% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of accumulation, best late and overnight.
Wind:
Increasing to SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 25 to 40 gusts to 60mph.
Thursday
Nov 12, 2009
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 10°f / -12°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Snow
Precipitation:
30% Chance of snow
Snow Potential
Wind:
WSW at up to 20 mph.
Long range forecast / discussion...November 12 to 15
--We may remain unsettled with chances for snow daily from Friday through Sunday of next week (through the 15th), with mostly light snow accumulations possible. Unless any of these systems becomes closed off and drops further south, we do not expect any big dumps of snow yet. It looks like we will see a balance of 1 to 2 days or so of sun broken up by 1 or 2 days of potential snow after mid month. There is a bit of a persistent high pressure ridge over the west, so storms are not expected to be blockbusters yet (mostly weakened systems with light snow), into late November.
This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. We will add more detail as we go into this coming week. CM
