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REGIONAL DISCUSSION;

--> A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS SOME SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES, MAINLY ABOVE 4,000 FEET, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE MT BAKER.

--> TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE BELOW, TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH MONDAY.

WESTERN MONTANA SPECIFIC, AND LONGER RANGE;

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IDAHO AND 
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

.MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER 
EASTERN OREGON HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A THERMAL BOUNDARY... IN EAST 
CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. IN AREAS ACROSS 
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ALL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT 
MDT WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE 
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION 
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA DURING MONDAY...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWNRIGHT COLD 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...A DUSTING OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
GLACIER PARK REGION DURING EARLY MONDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRANSIENT LOW PRESSURE FEATURE WILL ALSO ALLOW CONDITIONAL 
INSTABILITY TO PERSIST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY 
TUESDAY EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES BECOMING NIL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS ARE LIKELY FROM THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WITH ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS ADVERTISED TO PASS ON 
THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

For those who want to know, it looks like an El Nino SST pattern is developing and strengthening. We would expect more moisture for thunderstorms and showers this summer, and Pacific Hurricane activity with this development. We do not think this will be a dry summer compared to average, in fact it may be a bit wet. CM