6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Tuesday, February 7, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,790 feet (Big Bear Lake); Low 19, High 47 (Highest ~ 70 on January 31, 2003, Lowest ~ -25 on January 29, in 1979) ::: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY/ MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (SLOW WARMING TREND WITH SOME GOOD SNOW MAKING WEATHER TO START) ::: DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 7th...Today--CHANCE FOR SNOW-- -> A low pressure system moves in off of the Pacific, and is on a southward path as it enters the area (moving toward Baja but close to the coastline). What this does is take the nortward push of winds (for orographic lifting) and takes from the northward component, making it a weaker northward push of air. We expect some help from instability aloft, but not much. Light snow is then expected, developing mainly during the day and then off and on through tonight as this low moves south toward Baja CA.
Wednesday through Friday--BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY-- -> Low pressure moves south with mostly sunny skies developing on Wednesday, then more sun Thursday and Friday. Chilly Santa Ana winds will help keep temperatures cold enough for top to bottom snow making a part of the time, but close to 24 hours on Wednesday. A low pressure system (not strong) will approach on the northern California coastline on Friday. CM
Tuesday
Feb 07, 2012
Hi 39°f / 32°f (base/top) Lo 25°f / 21°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Becoming mostly cloudy and colder, with light snow showers developing mainly late morning/ afternoon. Light snow showers are possible through overnight.
Precipitation:
Snow likely.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Snow Making potential; 10 to 16 hours of marginal at the base, and 16 to 24 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
S at 10-20mph, becoming S at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
Wednesday
Feb 08, 2012
Hi 40°f / 32°f (base/top) Lo 26°f / 22°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Isolated snow showers early, then clearing to partly cloudy and chilly with north winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 13 to 18 hours of marginal at the base, and 18 to 24 hours of good up top.
Wind:
Becoming NE at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Thursday
Feb 09, 2012
Hi 46°f / 37°f (base/top) Lo 20°f / 24°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and cool with continued north winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 12 to 15 hours of marginal at the base, and 16 to 21 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
NE at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Friday
Feb 10, 2012
Hi 52°f / 43°f (base/top) Lo 26°f / 32°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with breezes shifting (approaching low pressure system).
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 6 to 10 hours of marginal at the base, and a few hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 5-15mph late. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 5-15mph late.
Saturday
Feb 11, 2012
Hi 49°f / 9°c (base) Lo 30°f / -1°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
SW at up to 0 mph.
Sunday
Feb 12, 2012
Hi 50°f / 10°c (base) Lo 31°f / -1°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
NNW at up to 5 mph.
Long range forecast / discussion...February 13 to 16
--Overall, high pressure ridging aloft across the west holds until mid February. Despite this ridge, a low pressure system moves in next Sunday and Monday with a chance for snow. We would expect light snow from this system. High pressure ridges back in after this system, holding across the western US. We are watching for better potential snow as we move into the 2nd half of February.
We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter period, weakening now and through the spring, into the summer. CM
