6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, February 8, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,790 feet (Big Bear Lake); Low 21, High 46 (Highest ~ 64 on February 09, 1996, Lowest ~ -06 on February 09, in 1966) ::: MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY (SLOW WARMING TREND WITH SOME GOOD SNOW MAKING WEATHER TO START)/ COLDER WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ::: DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 8th...Todaythrough Friday--BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY-- -> Low pressure moves south after dropping some very light snow, with mostly sunny skies developing today, then more sun Thursday and Friday. Chilly Santa Ana winds will help keep temperatures cold enough for top to bottom snow making a part of the time, but best today. A low pressure system (not strong) will approach on the northern California coastline on Friday.
Saturday through Tuesday --OFF AND ON SNOW (!!!), COLDER-- -> A weak low pressure system moves through mostly to the north on Saturday, with light snow possible for southern California mountain resort areas. One low pressure system is moving out and a stronger one moving in on Sunday (moving in overnight), with light snow showers expected. Light but possibly accumulating snow is expected on a colder Monday as low pressure moves through a bit further south than the last one, and this one looks stronger also. Another storm moves in late next Tuesday, with more light snow possible. If there is a more southward track, or slowing of these storms, we will see more snow than forecast, so we will watch for that possibility. CM
Wednesday
Feb 08, 2012
Hi 44°f / 35°f (base/top) Lo 28°f / 26°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Isolated snow showers early, then clearing to partly cloudy and chilly with north winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 10 to 14 hours of marginal at the base, and 16 to 21 hours of good up top.
Wind:
Becoming NE at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Thursday
Feb 09, 2012
Hi 50°f / 42°f (base/top) Lo 24°f / 28°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and milder with continued north winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 10 to 13 hours of marginal at the base, and 12 to 15 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
NE at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; NE at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Friday
Feb 10, 2012
Hi 56°f / 47°f (base/top) Lo 32°f / 40°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with breezes shifting (approaching low pressure system).
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; A few hours of marginal at the base, and 0 hours up top.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 10-20mph.
Saturday
Feb 11, 2012
Hi 45°f / 36°f (base/top) Lo 29°f / 27°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy and colder with isolated to possibly scattered light snow showers developing.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of snowfall. Snow Making potential; 8 to 12 hours of marginal at the base, and 12 to 18 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
SW/ W at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; W/ NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
Sunday
Feb 12, 2012
Hi 45°f / 36°f (base/top) Lo 22°f / 26°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and chilly during the day, becoming mostly cloudy overnight with light snow showers developing.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow overnight.
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of snowfall overnight. Snow Making potential; 10 to 13 hours of marginal at the base, and 14 to 20 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
SW/ NW at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; W/ SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Monday
Feb 13, 2012
Hi 39°f / 31°f (base/top) Lo 24°f / 20°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly cloudy and colder with light snow showers and gusty winds.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 inch of snowfall. Snow Making potential; 13 to 19 hours of marginal at the base, and 16 to 24 hours of good up top.
Wind:
Becoming W/ NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above 8,500 feet; W/ NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17
--High pressure ridges back in after Tuesday, holding across the west coast, but with more slight chances for snow late next week/ weekend ("inside slider" type storms, which are usually mostly dry and cold). We are watching for better potential snow as we move into the 2nd half of February. Updates to the long range forecast are coming.
We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter period, weakening now and through the spring, into the summer. CM
