Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR Friday,  November 6th  at  6:05pm. ---

Southerly wind region wide  has warmed most areas in the South well into the 60's and most other areas well in to the 50's. Most of Michigan has not seen the brunt of the warm air, but they will overnight as temps their will rise.  Saturday  expect temps to be in the  50's in the far North and low 70's in the far south. 60's seem to be good bet for  most of the region.  Most of Sunday looks mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon with a slight chance of showers in the South  in the early evening with temps still very similar to the past few days, thou a tad cooler overall. Rain chance for Monday has all but gone away. Still a slight chance in the South and East, but the North should see mostly sunny skies.  Tuesday - Thursday  brings a return to more normal like temps for early Nov . No real chance of any significant snow region wide in the next 6 days.  See long range for extended outlook.

 Rather benign  long range (7-14 days) shaping up. The beginning of this period looks  like a return to normal to slightly below normal  region wide with very little precip. (especially in the south).  The far North will have slight chance of very light snow by the wk-end of the 14th and 15th.  No big storms rain or snow on the horizon. No dramatic warm ups or arctic outbreaks either. The further east you go, the better your chances for  an extended period of below normal temps for the last half of November as a large trough of low pressure will likely being setting up shop over the eastern part of North America.

                                     Preliminary Winter Outlook 2009/2010  (posted on 10/23)  (updated 11/03)

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/03  . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Still a preliminary forecast, but this idea is looking more and more like it will need little change;

MN and WI-  the southern areas(areas south of 45N latitude)  will be more prone to below avg temps. The North will avg slightly above normal. Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+2F.  South 0.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrorhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -1   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -2 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

Tidbits

Thou Nov is not technically winter-- expect it to avg above normal in temp and below avg snowfall region wide.

Lake effect snows should be down a little due to the fact that major arctic  outbreaks are not likely until later in the winter after the lakes have cooled. (the warm water enhances lake effect).

Last half of JAN and especially FEB could be very cold ( -5F  to -10F below normals ) especially in the South and East. Snowfall looks to be high in the same areas.  Things are trending that this cold/snowy period may have to be moved up early in the winter.

Will give final update in 1-2 weeks.

JB