Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe (Base: 7,900', Top: 9,700')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, February 3, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 18, High 39 (Highest ~ 54 on February 01, 1995, Lowest ~ -04 on January 30, in 1933)
::: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL TODAY AND SATURDAY/ COOLER + ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY/ LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/ CLEARING WEDNESDAY :::
DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 3rd...Today and Saturday --MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL-- -> Skies are expected to be mostly clear/ partly cloudy, and winds mostly light (after north winds today). as high pressure ridges in across the western US, up into Canada. Temperatures do not look very warm, in fact they look cool, to help preserve the snow pack.
Sunday --INCREASED CLOUDS, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS-- -> A weak weather disturbance moves in off the Pacific, with increased clouds and isolated snow showers expected. Temperatures remain cool across the mountain.
Monday and Tuesday --CHANCE FOR SNOW-- -> A weakened low pressure system moves in off of the Pacific, and may slow while moving across California. There is a decent chance for snow Monday night through Tuesday. We will have to watch this possibility closely. CM
Friday Feb 03, 2012
Hi 44°f / 34°f (base/top)
Lo 20°f / 27°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and a bit milder with mostly light breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph. Above 8,500 feet; Variable at 5-15mph.
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Saturday Feb 04, 2012
Hi 40°f / 30°f (base/top)
Lo 17°f / 23°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cooler across the mountain, with mostly light breezes continuing.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph. Above 8,500 feet; Variable at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10-20mph.
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Sunday Feb 05, 2012
Hi 39°f / 29°f (base/top)
Lo 23°f / 21°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy and chilly with not much wind expected, but some mostly isolated snow showers possible.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
A trace.
Wind:
S at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; Becoming SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
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Monday Feb 06, 2012
Hi 40°f / 30°f (base/top)
Lo 23°f / 21°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder during the day. Clouds increase overnight, with light snow developing.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow overnight.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall overnight.
Wind:
SE at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; Becoming S at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
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Tuesday Feb 07, 2012
Hi 34°f / 25°f (base/top)
Lo 23°f / 19°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and colder with off/ on snow through the day and overnight.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
3 to 6 inches of snowfall.
Wind:
SW/ NW at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW/ NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
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Wednesday Feb 08, 2012
Hi 49°f / 9°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Wind:
E at up to 5 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...February 09 to 12
--A storm moves in off the Pacific by the (late) 6th/ 7th as we were expecting, but not in the way we were expecting (via an undercutting jet stream, off the mid Pacific). It looks like the undercutting jet stream ("undercutting" the high pressure ridge across the northwest US) may not materialize. There is still a chance for this possibility, and the relatively milder/ wet storms it could deliver to the western US, but high pressure ridging across the west may hold until mid February. Despite this ridge, some rogue storms are still possible from mainly the 10th-15th. So, in this update we are not completely removing a forecast possibility of snowfall between now and mid February, but are saying it is not as likely as mostly sunny skies and overall tranquil weather. We are watching for potential snow as we move into the 2nd half of February.
We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter period, weakening now and through the spring, into the summer. CM
