6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, September 2, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 44, High 74 (Highest ~ 84 in 1998, Lowest ~ 32 in 1980)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 34, High 68 (Highest ~ 78 in 2003, Lowest ~ 24 in 1993)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 31, High 56

::: WARMER, DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY :::

SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 2nd at 6:12am...Today and Friday --WARMER, MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY-- -> High pressure ridging aloft builds in as low pressure moves east from Montana/ Wyoming into the plains states, with a drier northwest flow aloft. Temperatures rebound some, but not like you would expect under a strong summer-like ridge. In other words, summer is fading away, and more fall like patterns are developing. Winds drop off to mostly light, except above timberline, and mornings look a bit frosty.

Saturday through Monday --WARMER, MOSTLY DRY, WINDS INCREASE-- -> Another Gulf of Alaska low pressure system starts developing across western Canada and the northwest US, causing increased southwest winds and mild temperatures. Due to the more southerly flow aloft, we do not see much cooling, and some moisture may be pulled in across the area. With this moisture we may start seeing some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but we will have to watch and see how much moisture ends up being available (moisture may be limited this late in the season). CM

Friday Sep 03, 2010 Hi 64°f / 18°c (base) Lo 47°f / 8°c (base) Sky Condition: Clear Precipitation: None expected Wind: WNW at up to 5 mph.	Saturday Sep 04, 2010 Hi 65°f / 18°c (base) Lo 47°f / 8°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Wind: S at up to 10 mph.	Sunday Sep 05, 2010 Hi 65°f / 18°c (base) Lo 46°f / 8°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: WSW at up to 20 mph.
Monday Sep 06, 2010 Hi 55°f / 13°c (base) Lo 41°f / 5°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of rain showers Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.	Tuesday Sep 07, 2010 Hi 57°f / 14°c (base) Lo 45°f / 7°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: S at up to 15 mph.	Wednesday Sep 08, 2010 Hi 57°f / 14°c (base) Lo 44°f / 7°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of rain showers Wind: SSE at up to 20 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...September 07 to 10

~This weekend and next week we see strong low pressure again hitting the northwest US, gradually drawing subtropical moisture in across Colorado. This is expected to cause increased thunderstorms and showers, along with eventual cooling of temperatures across all Colorado resort areas mainly next week (as low pressure over the northwest US persists). We will have to watch for availability of moisture in this pattern, but a tropical system (tropical storm, hurricane, etc.) moving across Mexico could be all we need to generate the moisture needed for thunderstorms next week. High pressure aloft and warming temperatures may develop late next week/ weekend (10-12th), but right before that happens we may see the resorts get dusted with snow by a weakening low pressure system over the northwest US, pushing through (9th/ 10th possibly). By Mid-September, we may see a stronger early season Gulf of Alaska low pressure system develop across the northwest US.

The El Nino SST pattern is now neutral (La Nada), and a La Nina SST pattern will likely take over for the coming fall/ winter, through possibly the season following (through 2012). This usually bodes well for northern Colorado resorts, but we will work up some comparisons of analog years this summer to see what we may expect. CM