6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, February 9, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 10, High 37 (Highest ~ 58 on February 09, 1996, Lowest ~ -25 on February 07, 1989)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 04, High 33 (Highest ~ 51 on February 09, 1987, Lowest ~ -31 on February 07, 1989)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low -03, High 21

::: ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND/ LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY (WE ARE ADDING DETAILS TODAY) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 9th...Today --SOME CLOUDS AND SUN MIXED, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS-- ->  It looks like most northern resorts picked up 2-4" of snow through last night, with snow showers continuing this morning. We have lingering light snow showers as moisture lingers and continues funneling in from the northwest, as we continue under an unsettled northwest/ north flow aloft on the east side of a high pressure ridge. Clouds and snow linger longest the closer you get to the divide. We expect clearing skies in the afternoon through evening.

Friday and Saturday --PARTLY CLOUDY, SLOW WARMING-- ->  High pressure ridging is expected across the area, with some warming expected each day. A storm is expected to approach Saturday night, with light snow developing mainly by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday --LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW-- -> Colder temperatures and snow are expected each day due to 2 upper-level weather disturbances passing through. The second storm may be a bit stronger, with more snowfall for all areas Monday than on Sunday. CM

 

Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 27°f / -3°c (base) Lo 8°f / -13°c (base) Sky Condition: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and continued chilly, with snow showers decreasing this morning, but continued off and on. Winds are expected to decrease. Skies clear out to partly cloudy in the afternoon/ evening. Precipitation: Snow likely. Snow Potential 1 inch of additional snowfall accumulation. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20mph.	Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 27°f / -3°c (base) Lo 12°f / -11°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with northwest breezes/ winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 27°f / -3°c (base) Lo 14°f / -10°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with not a lot of wind. Clouds increase overnight, with mostly isolated snow showers developing mainly Sunday morning. Precipitation: 20% chance for snow after midnight. Snow Potential Please see Sundays totals. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to W at 10-20mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 22°f / -6°c (base) Lo 11°f / -12°c (base) Sky Condition: Cloudy with continued light snow showers off and on through the day and evening. Most snow ends overnight, or becomes isolated. Precipitation: 50% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.	Monday Feb 13, 2012 Hi 22°f / -6°c (base) Lo 12°f / -11°c (base) Sky Condition: Chance of Light Snow Precipitation: 30% Chance of snow Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.	Tuesday Feb 14, 2012 Hi 19°f / -7°c (base) Lo 6°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Chance of Light Snow Precipitation: 40% Chance of snow Wind: W at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 15 to 18

--We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up. Next Tuesday (14th) we have another shot at snow (probably light), then again next Thursday and Friday (16/ 17th) we may see more snowfall from another low pressure system. Some of these storms could be significant as high pressure ridging retrogrades westward and allows more energy and moisture in across the area, but the track of each system is still uncertain. More information is coming.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM