6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 6, 2012

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::: LIGHT SNOW TODAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/ LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY/ CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 6th...Today --LIGHT SNOW-- -> We expect lingering low pressure across the area, south of a ridge of high pressure to the north and into Canada. Increased moisture and and energy move across the area as low pressure pushes east and dips south a bit, and this is expected to cause increased clouds and light snow showers, best this evening. We expect light accumulation of snow.

Tuesday and Wednesday --CLEARING OUT, SLOW WARMING-- -> The lingering low pressure scoots eastward onto the plains Tuesday, with clearing skies early Tuesday and partly cloudy through the period. This is as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the west. Breezes increase out of the west and northwest due to this transition, otherwise we see plenty of sunshine. Temperatures remain cold enough to help preserve snow.

Thursday --LIGHT SNOW-- -> A closed low pressure system moves in across the desert southwest and eventually to the south, pushing moisture up and across the area for some developing snow showers. We will be watching this. CM

 

Tuesday Feb 07, 2012 Hi 44°f / 7°c (base) Lo 23°f / -5°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: NE at up to 10 mph.	Wednesday Feb 08, 2012 Hi 44°f / 7°c (base) Lo 25°f / -4°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: SE at up to 5 mph.	Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 24°f / -4°c (base) Sky Condition: Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of snow Wind: ENE at up to 10 mph.
Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 43°f / 6°c (base) Lo 26°f / -3°c (base) Sky Condition: Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers Precipitation: Slight Chance (20%) of snow Wind: E at up to 5 mph.	Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 46°f / 8°c (base) Lo 28°f / -2°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Wind: S at up to 5 mph.	Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 52°f / 11°c (base) Lo 30°f / -1°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 12 to 15

--It looks like high pressure ridging across the west holds for the most part through mid-February. Despite this ridge, a low pressure system and snowfall is possible next 12th-13th (Sunday and Monday). This storm should produce mostly light snowfall. We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM