Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------

-- Final  WINTER OUTLOOK posted in Long Range-----  11/21

 
     SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS-- UPDATED FOR Monday, March 15th at 12:01am---

                                                 Snow Potential or the Weekend

Mild air will continue over the region for most of the work-week resulting in significant snow loss at resorts that still have a snow cover in the North and East. Temperatures will remain above freezing for most areas at night resulting in not being able to make snow at most locations. Hope lies at the end of the work week with a storm system beginning to enter the region with heavy rain possible in the South which will likely add more problems for flooding.  Initially. warm air will dominate most of areas affected by the storm system leading to rain, but cold enough air should work into the system changing the rain over to snow for most areas in the North,, thou the highest chances for accumulating snow at this time appear to be over S.MN and N.IA into central WI. Temps appear to remain below normal for the wk-end for all but the East.-- see long range for more chances of snow.

 links listed below comparing  various winter outlooks to actually what happened-----------------------------

NOAA outlook published in Mid-OCT 2009-- (not changed even in Mid-NOV)----

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

Actual outcome of winter temperatures--

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Actual outcome of winter precip-- (mostly snow for a majority of the  region with near record amounts in the south and below normal in the East and Far North).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Precipitation&type=2&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Written by snowforecast.com on NOV 21st 2009-

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! JB

Long Range-

one more blast of winter looks likely for the last 8-10 days of March and into very early April with much below normal temperatures and chances of accumulating snow from 2 different weather systems.  (mainly the North and East). Temperatures may once again flirt with single digits in the north and low to mid-teens in other areas,, which will seem quite cold after the much above experienced with the recent surge of warmth. Don't put those ski's away quite yet. However, after about April 5th-- spring looks to arrive in full force likely cutting short many ski areas planned closing of mid April.

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/21 . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB