6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, November 20, 2009

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 24, High 44 (Highest ~ 63 in 1989, Lowest ~ 01 in 1931)
-At 8,000 feet (About the base elevation of Kirkwood, "Twin Lakes"); Low 20, High 43

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20th at 6:10am...Today -> A very nice looking storm with heavy rain and snow is moving into extreme northwest northern California this morning, and is projected to hit Tahoe through Mammoth with moderate to heavy snow this afternoon through tonight. Most snow falls this evening for the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. We have 20+ to 50 knot cross mountain winds for good orographics, deep moisture, colder air moving in, and strong upper level dynamics to help squeeze every flake of snow possible from this storm. The only missing ingredient appears to be time, but with a short window of opportunity we still expect a solid foot of snow in many places. Snow showers develop mainly this afternoon, and heavier this evening, light and ending tonight/ Saturday morning. Winds look strong with blowing and drifting snow expected. Much colder temperatures are expected.

Saturday -> Low pressure moves east and we remain under an unsettled pattern aloft, as another storm approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. Skies are expected to be partly to mostly cloudy, with another shot of light snow possible Saturday night as the northern storm clips the area (mostly Lake Tahoe and north). Mountain top temperatures rise from the mid teens to upper 20's as the cold core of the latest storm moves east.

Sunday through Wednesday -> A high pressure ridge builds in overhead, with sunny skies and milder temperatures. Mountain top temperatures are expected to be above freezing by Tuesday, so snowmaking efforts would be limited to base elevations mostly (under the temperature inversions that will set up with the light breezes).

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Saturday Nov 21, 2009 Hi 42°f / 26°f (base/top) Lo 22°f / 15°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly to mostly cloudy and cool, with less wind. Clouds increase late, with a slight chance for snow then. Precipitation: 20% chance for snow overnight. Snow Potential No accumulation expected. Wind: N at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Sunday Nov 22, 2009 Hi 46°f / 35°f (base/top) Lo 16°f / 24°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and cool, with drier northwest breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: NW at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.	Monday Nov 23, 2009 Hi 52°f / 38°f (base/top) Lo 20°f / 30°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with mostly light breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; NE at 5 to 15mph.
Tuesday Nov 24, 2009 Hi 55°f / 44°f (base/top) Lo 23°f / 33°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly clear and warmer, with mostly light breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; E at 5 to 15mph.	Wednesday Nov 25, 2009 Hi 58°f / 48°f (base/top) Lo 24°f / 36°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly clear and warmer still, with mostly light breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; E at 5 to 15mph.	Thursday Nov 26, 2009 Hi 49°f / 9°c (base) Lo 33°f / 1°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: SW at up to 15 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...November 26 to 29

--We have a slight chance for snow next Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. Early December is looking unsettled, more so than most of November, so we do expect some snow storms to affect the area. More detail will be added as we go.

--WINTER OUTLOOK; For the Tahoe region, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some heavy snow to start falling this month and in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, with some wide variations and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM