6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, March 18, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 22, High 43 (Highest ~ 63 in 2007, Lowest ~ (-)2 in 1977)
-At 8,000 feet (About the base elevation of Kirkwood, "Twin Lakes"); Low 17, High 41

:::WINDS INCREASE:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 18th at 6:37am...Today -> A fairly strong, and cold but dry disturbance moves through out of the north, with increasing winds today, otherwise just a few clouds are expected.

Friday through Sunday -> It looks like high pressure ridging aloft builds in and holds, with spring-like temperatures (and likely conditions) continuing.

Monday and Tuesday -> A Pacific low pressure system moves through with potential snowfall both days, but decreasing later Tuesday. The storm looks like it may move into the Pacific Northwest mainly, with the south end of the system moving through Tahoe and the surrounding region. Light to moderate snowfall is possible, but we will watch as this could change.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Thursday Mar 18, 2010 Hi 48°f / 34°f (base/top) Lo 34°f / 24°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and cooler increasing northeast winds, especially strong above 8,500 feet. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph, increasing to NE at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; Becoming NE at 20 to 35 gusts to 50mph.	Friday Mar 19, 2010 Hi 50°f / 35°f (base/top) Lo 30°f / 24°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly clear and mild with northwest breezes/ winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Saturday Mar 20, 2010 Hi 52°f / 36°f (base/top) Lo 20°f / 24°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly clear and mild with less wind. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; NW at 5 to 15mph.
Sunday Mar 21, 2010 Hi 54°f / 41°f (base/top) Lo 24°f / 28°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy (middle and high clouds) and milder with developing west winds (approaching storm). Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Increasing to SW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.	Monday Mar 22, 2010 Hi 42°f / 27°f (base/top) Lo 31°f / 19°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy and cooler with developing light snow showers. Precipitation: 30% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Wind: SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph.	Tuesday Mar 23, 2010 Hi 38°f / 3°c (base) Lo 25°f / -4°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: WNW at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...March 23 to 26

--The last days of March, and April should be a good spring period for snow (and will be interesting) as the pattern remains unsettled 1/2 of the time (potential snow), broken up by periods of high pressure ridging (mostly sunny and milder). One thing about an El Nino year; The spring showers usually carry on well into May. Our El Nino pattern is weakening however, and many are talking about a La Nina sea surface temperature event for the next season. It is never cut and dry in the world of weather! We will watch and update as we get closer.

--WINTER 09-10' OUTLOOK FROM OCTOBER; For the Tahoe region, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some heavy snow to start falling this month and in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, with some wide variations and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM