6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 6, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 08, High 36 (Highest ~ 51 on February 01, 2003, Lowest ~ -24 on February 01, 1985)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 02, High 31 (Highest ~ 54 on January 31, 1992, Lowest ~ -38 on February 01, 1985)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low -03, High 20

::: LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND/ CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 6th...Today --INCREASED CLOUDS, LIGHT SNOW-- -> Increased moisture and energy is expected across the area today as upper level low pressure deepens, and this is expected to cause increased clouds and light snow showers as the low pressure system starts to move, with better accumulation possible across northern Colorado after some snow this morning across southwest Colorado (showing up on radar). We expect very little wind.

Tuesday through Thursday --CLEARING OUT, SLOW WARMING-- -> The lingering low pressure scoots eastward onto the plains Tuesday, with clearing skies early Tuesday and partly cloudy through the period. This is as high pressure ridging aloft builds in from the west. Breezes increase out of the west and northwest due to this transition, otherwise we see plenty of sunshine. There is a possibility for snow on Wednesday, and we will add it if it looks more realistic. Temperatures remain cold enough to help preserve snow. CM

 

Tuesday Feb 07, 2012 Hi 32°f / 0°c (base) Lo 4°f / -16°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and not as chilly with clearing to partly cloudy skies, and west winds across the mountain. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to SW/ NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Wednesday Feb 08, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 8°f / -13°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and not as cold, with not much wind. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20mph.	Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 7°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder, with increased breeziness. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 38°f / 3°c (base) Lo 10°f / -12°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: WSW at up to 5 mph.	Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 13°f / -11°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: SW at up to 5 mph.	Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 14°f / -10°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: S at up to 5 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 12 to 15

--It looks like high pressure ridging across the west holds for the most part through mid-February. Despite this ridge, a low pressure system and snowfall is possible for Colorado next 12th-13th (Sunday and Monday). This storm should produce mostly light to moderate snowfall west of the divide at the majority of resorts. We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM