Areas focused on below include; Minnesota,Iowa,Wisconsin and Michigan (including the UP).

When used, the following regions pertain to;

NORTH- MN,WI - North of 45 degrees latitude. (also the Upper Peninsula of Michigan).

SOUTH- MN,WI, - south of 45 degrees latitude. IOWA.

EAST- Lower Michigan.

WEST- MN and Iowa west of -95 degrees longitude.

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-- Final  WINTER OUTLOOK posted in Long Range-----  11/21

 
     SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS-- UPDATED FOR Tuesday, March 16th at 12:01am---

                       BIG SNOW POTENTIAL FOR IOWA INTO WISCONSIN for WK-END!!!!!!!                       

Mild air will continue over the region for most of the work-week resulting in significant snow loss at resorts that still have a snow cover in the North and East. Temperatures will remain above freezing for most areas at night resulting in not being able to make snow at most locations. Hope lies at the end of the work week with a very dynamic system taking shape in the Pacific Northwest and then rapidly gaining strength as it moves to lee side of the Rockies in New Mexico or Southern Colorado. Cold air will quite be  extensive with this system for mid-March , in fact so much so, it will not allow the storm to produce accumulating snowfall much further north than Minneapolis and on to the NE. Further South and to the East will likely be a near perfect situation for heavy snow. At this time the heaviest axis of snow looks to be setting up shop from somewhere in Southern,IA (will go with Des Moines for now) and extending NE to near the Madison, WI area. Amounts at this time appear to be 6-8"+ in the this area with potential for 10'+ in localized areas. Storm is still over 4.5 days away, so a lot can change,, but the models so far are scary in how consistent they are with each other. Stay tuned.  Temps appear to remain below normal for the wk-end for all but the East.-- see long range for more chances of snow.

 links listed below comparing  various winter outlooks to actually what happened-----------------------------

NOAA outlook published in Mid-OCT 2009-- (not changed even in Mid-NOV)----

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html

Actual outcome of winter temperatures--

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Actual outcome of winter precip-- (mostly snow for a majority of the  region with near record amounts in the south and below normal in the East and Far North).

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl?variab=Precipitation&type=2&base=3&mon1=12&mon2=2&iy[1]=2009&iy[2]=&iy[3]=&iy[4]=&iy[5]=&iy[6]=&iy[7]=&iy[8]=&iy[9]=&iy[10]=&iy[11]=&iy[12]=&iy[13]=&iy[14]=&iy[15]=&iy[16]=&iy[17]=&iy[18]=&iy[19]=&iy[20]=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=1&Submit=Create+Plot

Written by snowforecast.com on NOV 21st 2009-

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! JB

Long Range-

one more blast of winter looks likely for the last 8-10 days of March and into very early April with much below normal temperatures and chances of accumulating snow from 2 different weather systems.  (mainly the North and East). Temperatures may once again flirt with single digits in the north and low to mid-teens in other areas,, which will seem quite cold after the much above experienced with the recent surge of warmth. Don't put those ski's away quite yet. However, after about April 5th-- spring looks to arrive in full force likely cutting short many ski areas planned closing of mid April.

     Yes, the rumor is true. An El Nino is currently underway in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This will impact the upper midwest's weather this winter, and many outlets are predicting a warmer than avg winter and less precip based on El Nino for the upper Midwest. However, several points need to be made;

1: This Nino is currently weaker than it was forecasted to be now several months ago. If it continues to weaken, this will affect the weather in the upper midwest,, more so than most forecasters let on. In fact,  those who want a colder than normal winter in this situation actually want the El nino to increase before decreasing in the late winter  UPDATE**** 11/21 . The EL Nino is finally getting it's act together  and is currently the strongest it has been all year long. Expect this trend to continue with the weakening phase starting sometime in late Dec early Jan.

2: El Nino is just one player on the field amongst other "tools" long range forecasters use. These other factors are likely going to subdue the effects of El Nino this winter, especially if El Nino starts to weaken in mid-late winter.

3: not all El Nino's are the same, especially this one.  This is a reactionary Nino to last years' La nina. This El Nino is not the  driving force like they sometimes can be in the atmosphere.

4: sunspot activity is at a low point. In fact, it's starting to get a tad scary. Lack of sunspots means the sun is emitting  about .1 of 1% less energy. It makes a difference, especially coupled with all the other "tools".

Based on other measured teleconnections across the world along with the idea of this El Nino weakening in the dead winter is starting to make the forecast for the Upper Midwest more clear for the winter months. The fact that  the El Nino has increased in intensity actually gives credence to a prediction  of it fading as mentioned above when factoring in the other teleconnections around the world.

Winter Outlook (DEC-FEB). Geographic descriptions are located above in the short range segment.

MN/WISC  North- North of 45 degrees  latitude. South- South of 45 degrees latitude.

Dec-Feb deviation from normal in the North--+1F.  South -1.  SE WI has the highest chance of above normal snowfall. Other areas should be near normal (40" in the South to near 100" in the Arrowhead of MN.) % of normal snowfall-- SE WIS 100-120%  all other areas- 85-100%. 

 IA-  temp -2   snow- % of normal snowfall 90-110%

Mich  temp -3 snow-% of normal snowfall  105-125%  (125% in the extreme south and east)

JB