Sugar Bowl Resort (Base: 6,883', Top: 8,383')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, May 21, 2012
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 34, High 62 (Highest ~ 80 on May 20, 1954, Lowest ~ 15 on May 22, in 2010)
::: WINDY AND COOLER TODAY AND TUESDAY/ COOL WITH AN APPROACHING STORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/ SHOWERS AND SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY :::
DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, MAY 21st...Today and Tuesday --COOLING TREND, WINDY-- -> The ridge of high pressure breaks down as strong late season low pressure moves into the northwest US. This is a pretty cold system for late May, and mountain snow is expected across Oregon and Washington. For the northern and central Sierra Nevada Mountains, we expect windy conditions and cooler temperatures, along with partly cloudy (mostly sunny) skies.
Wednesday and Thursday --COOL, APPROACHING STORM-- -> High pressure ridging weakens further, with cooler air moving in and continued breezy/ windy conditions. Low pressure continues to the north, with one storm moving off into the northern and central Rocky Mountains (UT/ CO and north) with rain and snow. Another storm moves in offshore from the Washington/ Oregon coastline, with rain and snow up there.
Friday through Sunday --RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, CHILLY-- -> The strong late season storm drops south and into the area this coming weekend, with some showers and even snow accumulation possible. Colder air moves in with clouds and showers on Friday. Max temperatures drop to the 40's by Friday. Snow levels may drop to 5,000 feet on Saturday with a continued chance for rain and snow. On Sunday the system should be moving out with clearing after some morning showers. CM
Monday May 21, 2012
Hi 67°f / 51°f (base/top)
Lo 38°f / 40°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy and cooler with increasing winds expected.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at 5-15mph, becoming S/ SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
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Tuesday May 22, 2012
Hi 62°f / 46°f (base/top)
Lo 37°f / 34°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool with gusty winds continuing.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
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Wednesday May 23, 2012
Hi 63°f / 46°f (base/top)
Lo 27°f / 31°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool with less wind.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming W at 5-15mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
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Thursday May 24, 2012
Hi 59°f / 43°f (base/top)
Lo 29°f / 28°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cooler with west winds developing again. Showers are expected to the north of Lake Tahoe.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at 5-15mph, becoming W at 10-20mph. Above timberline; W at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
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Friday May 25, 2012
Hi 46°f / 31°f (base/top)
Lo 30°f / 21°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and cold for late May, with rain and snow showers possible. Snow levels are expected to be around 7,000 feet. Gusty winds are expected. Snow levels may drop to 5,000 feet overnight.
Precipitation:
50% chance for showers.
Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall above 7,000 feet.
Wind:
SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; SW at 20-30 gusts to 45mph.
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Saturday May 26, 2012
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 32°f / 0°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
40% Chance of snow
Wind:
W at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...May 27 to 30
--Next week we see warming and mostly sunny skies as high pressure ridging builds in across the west. This should hold pretty strong. We may see some low pressure mainly to the north (dry for us but windy with some cooling of temperatures) later that week into early June.
We have a "La Nada" SST pattern in place right now (near average sea surface temperatures). We expect to see a shift to an El Nino SST pattern this summer. Because stronger high pressure ridges tend to establish across the west during the summer in an El Nino pattern, and moisture has a more "open door" to move north without the westerly winds cutting it off, we then see more potential thunderstorms affecting the west in general. We will have to see if the El Nino is supposed to hang on into the 2012-2013 winter season, but it probably will. More to come. CM
