Suicide Six (Base: 550', Top: 1,200')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Saturday, November 21, 2009OVERALL SITUATION--(Next update Monday Nov 23) High and dry this weekend with more high pressure in control. The pattern gets a little more unsettled next week--a weak coastal system early in the week (mainly rain for now) followed by a deep upper level trough digging in from the west late next week--that's when we can at least get cold enough for snowmaking along with the threat of some storms! And it looks like it will last a while to help get those slopes covered for opening days!
This Weekend--High pressure aloft noses in and keeps skies mainly sunny this weekend--a weak piece of upper level energy aloft slips by to our south today with a few clouds but overall calm conditions this weekend as northwesterly winds ease off today. Temps remain mild with freezing levels still way up around 8000 feet. Overnight base temps will be chilly under clears skies and radiational cooling but with inversions aloft remaining (about 1500-2000 feet both tonight and Saturday night/early Sunday morning).
Monday--Another area of low pressure gathers to our southwest and starts to pull in an easterly onshore flow--look for cloudier skies, southeasterly breezes and a batch of more light/moderate rain later on Monday (mainly afternoon)--an icy/wintry mix to start is possible with chilly air getting trapped near base level--otherwise mainly rain as temperatures aloft will be warmer (freezing levels again building up to around 8,000 feet).
Tuesday and Wednesday--Could get interesting with a pattern change and more unsettled/chillier conditions on the way later on in the week! Tuesday will be clearing remnants from Monday nights systems with only partial clearing and mainly dry conditions in between storms. Southwesterly breezes pick up again and freezing levels remain up around 10,000 feet. We'll be watching an upper level trough digging in from the Great Lakes on Wednesday--temps start to cool off a bit for marginal snowmaking until we can work up a possible storm around Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving and Friday--Large low pressure to our west pushes in with a leading edge cold front (Wed night)--that will still pose the threat of some rain showers before temps aloft finally cool off. It may take some time so we'll be watching mainly cloudy skies and mainly scattered shower activity as the core of cold air arrives later on with scattered snow showers. We'll watch the timing on this for mainly later in the day and keep adjusting. We also watch the possibility of a coastal storm developing along that cold front--aside from that Friday looks colder to get those snow guns blasting along with the continued threat of some snow showers!--CT
Saturday Nov 21, 2009
Hi 52°f / 11°c (base)
Lo 25°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Northwest breezes clear things out to drier, sunnier skies and steady temps
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
NW breezes at 5-10mph at the base...25-30mph with gusts to 35mph early...easing off through the day
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Sunday Nov 22, 2009
Hi 50°f / 10°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Just a bit cooler under plenty of sunshine and light breezes--chilly early morning base temps with inversions aloft
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
Calm base breezes...light NW breezes up top at 10-15mph
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Monday Nov 23, 2009
Hi 44°f / 7°c (base)
Lo 37°f / 3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Turning cloudy again on increasing southeasterly breezes--developing light rain (mainly late)--an icy mix possible with chilly base temps and freezing levels up around 7,000 feet
Precipitation:
Building to about a 70% chance of mainly rain with warmer air aloft and freezing levels up around 7,000 feet--chilly base air could keep an icy mix around
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
Increasing SE breezes--5-10mph at the base...stronger summit winds at 30-35mph with higher gusts
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Tuesday Nov 24, 2009
Hi 53°f / 12°c (base)
Lo 35°f / 2°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Some early clouds and a light rain shower or two followed by partial clearing--southwesterly breezes keep freezing levels high
Precipitation:
A few early rain showers (20-30% chance) clearing out and turning mainly dry
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
SW 5-10mph...SW summit winds at 25-30mph
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Wednesday Nov 25, 2009
Hi 50°f / 10°c (base)
Lo 30°f / -1°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Watching storm out west but southwesterly breezes and some cloudiness for now--could be a few light leading edge showers
Precipitation:
30% chance of a few showers late--freezing levels still high
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
Remaining SW 5-10mph at the base...20-25mph up top
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Thursday Nov 26, 2009
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Turning colder under shifting breezes and mainly cloudy skies--freezing levels drop with the chance of mainly late scattered snow showers
Precipitation:
40% chance of scattered snow showers developing later in the day with dropping freezing levels
Snow Potential
Accumulations during the day not expected--perhaps a coating to a couple of inches late/evening
Wind:
SW-NW winds at 5-10mph at the base 25-30mph with higher gusts
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Long range forecast / discussion...November 28 to December 01The pattern still looks to remain in our favor for continued cold enough air for more snowmaking--upper level troughing sets up nicely in the long term with the help of some weak downstream blocking (over Greenland). That may cut loose later next week allowing our trough to fill/weaken, but there's still plenty of time through Thanksgiving weekend to blast some snow--CT
