Sunlight Mountain Resort (Base: 7,885', Top: 9,895')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, March 18, 2010Our reputation for customized, skier/boarder friendly forecasts is growing but we still need to get the word out to keep us going for next season. Please contact your favorite resort and put in a good word for us!
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 21, High 46 (Highest ~ 64 in 2004, Lowest ~ 02 in 1988)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 11, High 39 (Highest ~ 58 in 2004, Lowest ~ (-)11 in 1988)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 02 , High 27
:::SNOW BEGINS THIS EVENING:::
SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 18th at 6:27am...(again at 1:33pm)...Today and Friday -> SNOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT, MORE SNOW ON A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER FRIDAY; A low pressure system drops southeast out of ID/ MT and across Utah and southwest Colorado (carves somewhat south toward southwest CO, a bit east of what was projected, making snow potential a bit better overall for Colorado), with developing snow showers this evening/ overnight as this system approaches. A strong cold front blasts in tonight, and colder air working in on Friday (mild morning/ cold evening). On Friday snow continues while the storm moves south to southern CO and northern NM. We have a westerly flow aloft and across the mountains as this system begins moving in tonight, with light snow in all areas, then the cross-mountain wind flow becomes more north/ northeast, and then east as we move through the day. Jet stream energy is expected (though strongest winds stay to the west and south), with some upper level instability on Friday. The strong looking Canadian cold front that passes through on Friday will add some lifting mechanism for snow production across all areas. We expect moderate snow totals overall, with heaviest snow still east of the divide. East flow across the mountains will work against the upper level instability and lift we expect on Friday ("rain shadow" effect on the lee side of the mountains, which would be the resort areas). Snow showers mostly end Friday night/ Saturday morning. Snow totals are almost guaranteed to be all over the place, from resort to resort, with this one.
Saturday through Monday -> BREAK BETWEEN STORMS/ PARTLY CLOUDY; Low pressure moves eastward and out on Saturday, with a slightly unsettled pattern remaining under a strong northwest oriented jet stream. Most moisture is expected to be gone with the storm, but there should be enough lingering for some snow flurries and a sun/ cloud mix at times Saturday (increased winds also), mainly along the divide. Milder but still cool on Sunday, as high pressure builds in some (not as strong and spring-like as it was in recent days). Monday is a transition day, with shifting winds due to an approaching low pressure system out of the Northwest US. Partly cloudy skies are expected.
Tuesday and Wednesday -> THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN/ SNOW; Snow develops on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves in out of the northwest. The tendency has been for storms to target southern Colorado, so we will have to watch the projected path of this system for trends. Light to moderate snowfall is likely, and heavier snow is less likely but still possible.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Thursday Mar 18, 2010
Hi 49°f / 9°c (base)
Lo 26°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and warm through the day, with increasing clouds and ridge top winds. Skies become mostly cloudy by evening with scattered to numerous snow showers by late evening and through overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be mixed in also.
Precipitation:
Snow definite by late evening and overnight.
Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall through overnight.
Wind:
S at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; W at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Friday Mar 19, 2010
Hi 29°f / -2°c (base)
Lo 9°f / -13°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Cloudy and steadily colder through the day, with continuing snow showers. Warmest temperatures occur in the morning, and coldest in the evening. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible.
Precipitation:
Snow definite.
Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall (up to 6 inches of snowfall for the upper mountain).
Wind:
NW/ NE at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Winds above timberline; W at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
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Saturday Mar 20, 2010
Hi 29°f / -2°c (base)
Lo 14°f / -10°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy with light snow showers early, clearing to partly cloudy skies and northwest winds.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow mainly early.
Snow Potential
A trace.
Wind:
NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Sunday Mar 21, 2010
Hi 41°f / 5°c (base)
Lo 25°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with west/ northwest winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Monday Mar 22, 2010
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 26°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and milder with winds becoming more southwest.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Tuesday Mar 23, 2010
Hi 40°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 24°f / -4°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Clouds increase and snow showers develop, continuing through overnight.
Precipitation:
40% chance for snow by afternoon.
Snow Potential
2 to 4 inches of snowfall.
Wind:
SW/ NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW/ NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...March 23 to 26--There is a break in weather/ snow possible after next Tuesday/ Wednesday's storm, then another shot at snow possible for the last weekend in March (27th/ 28th). Pacific storms (with snow) should move through with good frequency right into April. The rest of April still looks potentially snowy (what we mean by "snowy" - at least 1 day with snow for every 2 sunny/ no snow days).
FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near to below average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM
