Taos Ski Valley (Base: 9,207', Top: 11,819')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, November 6, 2009PLEASE NOTE: The temperatures shown for "base" (if "base/ top" is not displayed) are more of a mid mountain temperature forecast. In season (October through April) we are back to forecasting base and top temperatures plus more detail for our partner resorts like Taos Ski Valley (http://www.snowforecast.com/TaosSkiValley).
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 8,500 feet (Red River): Low 18, High 49 (Highest ~ 65 in 1980, Lowest ~ (-)10 in 1948)
-At 9,500 feet (Base elevation for Taos Resort); Low 22, High 46
-At 12,000 feet (Near the top elevation of some resorts); Low 12, High 36
SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6th at 11:30am..Today -> Strong low pressure is moving into the northwest US, with up to 2 feet of snow in the Cascades of Washington and less as you go east. For northern New Mexico, mostly sunny skies and increased west winds continue under weakening high pressure ridging aloft. Relatively warm and windy, with strong winds across the upper ridges.
Saturday -> More low pressure continues across the northwest US, with rain and snow there. A southwest flow aloft carries in middle and high cloudiness (otherwise mostly sunny), with continued west winds and relatively warm temperatures.
Sunday and Monday -> A weakening storm moving through far to our north (across Montana) is not expected to do much for us except drop temperatures back into improved snow making range (mainly starting Monday). Some clouds are expected, along with light snow flurries on Monday. We do not expect accumulations.
Next Tuesday -> Brief high pressure aloft and warming...mostly sunny and breezy.
Next Wednesday and Thursday -> A stronger system breaks through from the Pacific, with colder air contained within. Light snow is possible starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday, plus colder air pushing in on Thursday.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Saturday Nov 07, 2009
Hi 58°f / 44°f (base/top)
Lo 31°f / 32°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and relatively warm, with decreased west winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
SW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
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Sunday Nov 08, 2009
Hi 54°f / 40°f (base/top)
Lo 25°f / 30°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with less wind.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
NW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to W at 10 to 20mph.
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Monday Nov 09, 2009
Hi 45°f / 30°f (base/top)
Lo 32°f / 22°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with snow flurries.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
No accumulation expected.
Wind:
NW at 10 to 20mph. Winds above timberline; NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
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Tuesday Nov 10, 2009
Hi 49°f / 33°f (base/top)
Lo 29°f / 20°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder with some west winds.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
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Wednesday Nov 11, 2009
Hi 52°f / 39°f (base/top)
Lo 34°f / 25°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and warmer with increasing west winds. Scattered showers develop overnight, with snow levels starting high (near 10,000 feet) and dropping.
Precipitation:
30% chance for showers overnight.
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of accumulation overnight.
Wind:
Becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 25 to 40 gusts to 55mph.
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Thursday Nov 12, 2009
Hi 52°f / 11°c (base)
Lo 21°f / -6°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
SW at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...November 12 to 15--We may remain unsettled with chances for snow daily from Friday through Sunday of next week (through the 15th), with mostly light snow accumulations possible (marginally cold air, upr 20's base and upr 10's up top). It looks like we will see a balance of 1 to 2 days or so of sun broken up by 1 or 2 days of potential snow after mid month. There is a bit of a persistent high pressure ridge over the west, the reason these storms are not expected to be blockbusters yet (mostly weakened systems with light snow), into late November. The only caveat to this would be if a storm slips under the ridge/ becomes cut off, and that is possible (could mean a more southerly flow and heavier snow for TSV).
This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for northern New Mexico, and temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM
