6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, February 8, 2012

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::: SOME CLOUDS TODAY THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/ LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND/ SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY (NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME BUSY WITH STORMS) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 8th...Today --SOME CLOUDS AND SUN MIXED TODAY, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT-- ->  The low pressure system currently dropping some showers across central California is expected to push some moisture slowly eastward into Utah and Colorado, then eventually northern New Mexico, with isolated snow showers developing mainly Wednesday night due to this moisture and some instability.

Thursday --CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW-- ->  Clouds increase and we have light snow showers as moisture increases, and we are under an unsettled northwest flow aloft on the east side of a high pressure ridge. At the same time, low pressure deepens across the upper Midwest/ Great Lakes. We expect light snow accumulation.

Friday and Saturday --PARTLY CLOUDY, SLOW WARMING-- ->  High pressure ridging is expected across the area, with some warming expected each day. A storm is expected to approach Saturday night, with light snow developing mainly by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday --LIGHT SNOW-- -> Colder temperatures and mostly light snow are expected each day due to 2 upper-level weather disturbances passing through. The second storm may be a bit stronger, with more snowfall on Monday than on Sunday. CM

 

Wednesday Feb 08, 2012 Hi 35°f / 20°f (base/top) Lo 7°f / 9°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly to mostly cloudy and not as cold, with some west wind. Isolated snow showers develop overnight. Precipitation: 20% chance for snow overnight. Snow Potential A trace overnight. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to W at 10-20mph. Above timberline; W at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Thursday Feb 09, 2012 Hi 31°f / 17°f (base/top) Lo 17°f / 11°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Becoming mostly cloudy and cooler, with increased but light snow showers. Snow ends overnight. Precipitation: 50% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: W at 5-15mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20mph.	Friday Feb 10, 2012 Hi 39°f / 24°f (base/top) Lo 13°f / 9°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with northwest breezes/ winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.
Saturday Feb 11, 2012 Hi 41°f / 25°f (base/top) Lo 18°f / 16°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder with not a lot of wind. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to W at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20mph.	Sunday Feb 12, 2012 Hi 32°f / 19°f (base/top) Lo 20°f / 11°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy with light snow showers by afternoon and evening. Snow mostly ends overnight. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to W/ NW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph.	Monday Feb 13, 2012 Hi 38°f / 3°c (base) Lo 15°f / -9°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: W at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17

--We are watching for potentially more significant snow (better than "light") as we move into the 2nd half of February, with some of the computer model ensembles backing this up. Next Tuesday (14th) we have another shot at snow (probably light), then again next Thursday and Friday (16/ 17th) we may see more snowfall from another low pressure system. We will update when more info is available.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM