6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Wednesday, February 22, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 13, High 40 (Highest ~ 55 on February 19, 1983, Lowest ~ -06 on February 16, 1990)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 05, High 34 (Highest ~ 52 on February 18, 2004, Lowest ~ -19 on February 18, 1978)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low 01, High 23

::: SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING/ CLEARING OUT FRIDAY/ POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM COMING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ MORE SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY (...STILL EDITING FOR THIS COMING WEEKENDS STORM) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 22nd...Today and Thursday --SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY-- -> The northern jet stream is nosing in across and just north of Colorado today, dipping south tonight and Thursday to cut across the area, with good moisture and some dynamics, though most action is across the northern Colorado mountains. The mountain tops will do pretty well since they are more open to the incoming moist flow aloft. A stronger low pressure system, along with good jet dynamics, moves in tonight and through Thursday, with moderate+ snowfall all totaled.

Friday --BETWEEN STORMS, MOSTLY SUN-- -> On Friday low pressure clears out, and a ridge of high pressure builds in across the area. Mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures are expected. Low pressure will be ginning up at the same time, to our west.

Saturday and Sunday --SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM-- -> We are editing our forecast snow totals this morning, as we still expect a pretty strong low pressure system to move in later in the day Saturday, and moving through the area into Sunday. Pretty good dynamics and moisture are expected, and snow totals will likely be significant for most areas north to south.

Monday and Tuesday --MORE SNOW-- -> Another low pressure system moves through these 2 days, with more snow expected, and possibly significant again. It is good to see the pattern more productive! CM

 

Wednesday Feb 22, 2012 Hi 40°f / 20°f (base/top) Lo 16°f / 8°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly cloudy and warmer, with mostly isolated snow showers through the day. Skies become cloudy in the evening, with snow showers increasing, and becoming heavier mainly after midnight. Precipitation: Isolated snow showers through the day, with snow likely by evening and overnight. Snow Potential 5 to 8 inches of snowfall, most of it late. Wind: SW/ NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; W/ NW at 20-30 gusts to 50mph. (winds increase, with gusts to 80mph above 11,500 feet.	Thursday Feb 23, 2012 Hi 32°f / 12°f (base/top) Lo 16°f / 1°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly cloudy with colder temperatures, and snow showers off and on through the day and through evening mostly. Most snow ends overnight. Precipitation: Snow likely. Snow Potential 2 to 4 inches of snowfall. Wind: NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; NW at 25-35 gusts to 55mph.	Friday Feb 24, 2012 Hi 33°f / 13°f (base/top) Lo 4°f / -6°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and not as cold, with decreased winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to NW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; NW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
Saturday Feb 25, 2012 Hi 37°f / 16°f (base/top) Lo 3°f / 6°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and milder through the day, with increasing gusty winds and clouds in the afternoon. Snow showers develop in the afternoon and continue through overnight, heavy at times. Precipitation: Snow likely afternoon through overnight. Snow Potential 5 to 9 inches of snowfall. Wind: SW at 5-15mph, increasing to W at 15-25 gusts to 35mph. Above timberline; SW/ NW at 25-40 gusts to 60mph.	Sunday Feb 26, 2012 Hi 27°f / 6°f (base/top) Lo 5°f / -10°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers in the morning, clearing to partly cloudy late day. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: Becoming NW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW/ NW at 20-30 gusts to 45mph.	Monday Feb 27, 2012 Hi 27°f / -3°c (base) Lo 6°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: WSW at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 28 to March 02

--A ridge of high pressure aloft remains across the eastern Pacific, and this will affect how the storms move in next week, and how much moisture they will carry (usually more limited/ drier). It is possible we will see more cut-off type low pressure systems dropping in out west due in part to the presence of the east Pacific high pressure ridge. These storms and this type of storm track usually favors southern Colorado resorts, but we believe the northern resorts will be targeted nicely with some of the storms also (the storms that do not stall out and "cut-off", but move through more progressively. In early March we expect more Pacific moisture and storms to move in, for a continuance of frequent snow storms as we move through early March.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM