Waterville Valley (Base: 1,984', Top: 4,004')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, November 20, 2009OVERALL SITUATION--I know it's frustrating to see the rainfall during pre-season prep but things are looking better in the long run. We still have to get through some rainy conditions today with a quick system moving through followed by high pressure and dry conditions this weekened (marginal snowmaking conditions). The pattern gets a little more unsettled next week--another coastal system (mainly rain for now) followed by a deep upper level trough digging in from the west late next week--that's when we can at least get cold enough for snowmaking along with the threat of some storms!
Today and Saturday--Cut-off low pressure moves through with a batch of rain showers today--heaviest this morning before tapering off for the afternoon. Freezing levels will remain up around 8,000 feet so all rain this time. We'll get a burst of southwesterly winds early in the day before a northwesterly shift in the afternoon, followed by a dip in freezing levels for a brief period of snowmaking (freezing levels down to around 3000 feet overnight) This system gradually clears on Saturday--some early clouds and a light sprinkle or summit snow shower with cooler morning temps before temps and freezing levels start to rebound once again. Overnight base temps will be chilly but with inversions aloft remaining (about 1500-2000 feet both tonight and Saturday night/early Sunday morning).
Sunday and Monday--High pressure returns for Sunday with a sunny and dry end to the weekend. Another area of low pressure gathers to our southwest and starts to pull in an easterly onshore flow--look for cloudier skies, southeasterly breezes and a batch of more light/moderate rain on Monday (mainly afternoon)--an icy/wintry mix to start is possible with chilly air getting trapped near base level--otherwise mainly rain as temperatures aloft will be warmer (freezing levels again building up to around 8,000 feet).
Tuesday and Wednesday--Could get interesting with a pattern change and more unsettled/chillier conditions on the way later on in the week! Tuesday will be clearing remnants from Monday nights systems with only partial clearing and mainly dry conditions in between storms. Southwesterly breezes pick up again and freezing levels remain up around 10,000 feet. We'll be watching an upper level trough digging in from the Great Lakes on Wednesday--temps start to cool off a bit for marginal snowmaking until we can work up a possible storm around Thanksgiving--CT
Saturday Nov 21, 2009
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Some early cloudiness and a light sprinkle or summit snow shower followed by gradual clearing and chillier northwesterly breezes
Precipitation:
20-30% chance of an early sprinkle or summit snow shower...overall turning drier
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected--early morning snowmaking possible before temps rebound
Wind:
NW breezes at 5-10mph at the base...25-30mph with gusts to 35mph early...easing off through the day
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Sunday Nov 22, 2009
Hi 43°f / 6°c (base)
Lo 20°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Just a bit cooler under plenty of sunshine and light breezes--chilly early morning base temps with inversions aloft
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
Calm base breezes...light NW breezes up top at 10-15mph
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Monday Nov 23, 2009
Hi 39°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 28°f / -2°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Turning cloudy again on increasing southeasterly breezes--developing light rain (mainly late)--an icy mix possible with chilly base temps and freezing levels up around 7,000 feet
Precipitation:
Building to about a 70% chance of mainly rain with warmer air aloft and freezing levels up around 7,000 feet--chilly base air could keep an icy mix around
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
Increasing SE breezes--5-10mph at the base...stronger summit winds at 30-35mph with higher gusts
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Tuesday Nov 24, 2009
Hi 46°f / 8°c (base)
Lo 32°f / 0°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Some early clouds and a light rain shower or two followed by partial clearing--southwesterly breezes keep freezing levels high
Precipitation:
A few early rain showers (20-30% chance) clearing out and turning mainly dry
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
SW 5-10mph...SW summit winds at 25-30mph
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Wednesday Nov 25, 2009
Hi 38°f / 3°c (base)
Lo 27°f / -3°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Watching storm out west but southwesterly breezes and some cloudiness for now--could be a few light leading edge showers
Precipitation:
30% chance of a few showers late--freezing levels still high
Snow Potential
Accumulations not expected
Wind:
Remaining SW 5-10mph at the base...20-25mph up top
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Thursday Nov 26, 2009
Hi 32°f / 0°c (base)
Lo 23°f / -5°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of snow
Snow Potential
Wind:
NW at up to 10 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...November 26 to 29FINALLY, upper level troughing looks to dig through the region with colder air aloft and unsettled conditions as we head through Thanksgiving weekend! The first wave looks to hopefully hit us around Thurs/Friday and could wrap up into a significant storm--colder air returns behind it to blast the snowguns too. We'll remain cold and unsettled through the weekend with another wave or two of storminess--CT
