Whaleback Ski Area (Base: 1,100', Top: 1,800')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Thursday, February 9, 2012
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OVERALL SITUATION--Uneventful through the rest of the week with a quiet and dry westerly flow. Then things pick up in a hurry this weekend--low pressure drops down from Canada this weekend--a cold front early Saturday (very cold conditions this weekend); PLUS a storm flares up just offshore late Saturday and could be a very close call! Upslope snowfall sets up for northern resorts Sunday as upper level low pressure drops in overhead. After that, high pressure builds back in early next week.
Today--Dry and mainly sunny with brief high pressure ridging today--a touch warmer with continued dry westerly breezes.
Friday--Dry and still mainly sunny with steady temps (increasing southwesterly winds) before another cold front (limited moisture again) drops in from the northwest overnight--light snow showers and only minor accumulations overnight/early Saturday
Saturday and Sunday--VERY Cold--Watching Offshore Storm--Upslope Northern Resorts--AM clouds and snow showers from overnight taper off Saturday to gusty winds and partial clearing to colder temps. Straight northerly winds (not too strong though) and significant windchills will be uncomfortable for many, especially the kiddos (layer up, face protection, frequent lodge breaks). Watching offshore moisture/disturbance but so far still just out of reach--the trend has been getting closer so we'll watch very closely!!! Otherwise, still cold into Sunday with upper level low pressure dropping in from the north--a secondary front (and colder surge of air) drops through--more snow showers/squalls, gustier winds, and severe windchills! Upslope snow setting up for mainly northern resorts later Sunday and into Monday (light/moderate accumulations possible).
Monday and Tuesday--Upslope snows for northern resorts gradually fade Monday with a drier westerly flow shifting back in--very cold to start but a slight temp rebound in the PM. A weak upper level disturbance drifts in Tuesday with possible light snowfall (minor accumulations?)--CT
Thursday Feb 09, 2012
Hi 39°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 19°f / -7°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mainly sunny and dry conditions holding--a bit warmer with west breezes picking up
Precipitation:
Mainly dry
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind:
W base breezes 10-15mph...summit winds 25-30mph
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Friday Feb 10, 2012
Hi 39°f / 4°c (base)
Lo 15°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mainly sunny AM--increasing winds and PM clouds--overnight snow showers
Precipitation:
Dry during the day--30-40% chance of scattered snow showers overnight
Snow Potential
Trace to an inch or two overnight possible
Wind:
W-SW base winds 10-20mph...summit winds 30-35mph
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Saturday Feb 11, 2012
Hi 20°f / -7°c (base)
Lo 4°f / -16°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Lingering clouds and a few snow showers, mostly AM--turning MUCH colder with northerly winds and significant windchills (summit esp)--*still watching strong offshore storm*
Precipitation:
30-40% chance of residual light snow showers
Snow Potential
An additional trace to a couple of inches possible
Wind:
N base breezes 10-15mph...summit winds N 20-30mph (severe windchills)
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Sunday Feb 12, 2012
Hi 12°f / -11°c (base)
Lo -8°f / -22°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly sunny to start then clouding up--still very cold with northerly winds--light snow showers/flurries developing mainly PM/overnight
Precipitation:
Dry to start then 20-30% chance of light snow showers/flurries late/overnight
Snow Potential
Light accumulations possible...a trace to a couple of inches
Wind:
NW base winds 10-20mph...summit winds 25-35mph, higher gusts and continued *DANGEROUS WINDCHILLS* (all levels but especially summit)...25-35 BELOW ZERO--some blowing snow PM
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Monday Feb 13, 2012
Hi 22°f / -6°c (base)
Lo 18°f / -8°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mainly cloudy and still cold with light snow showers/flurries easing off--partial clearing and lighter winds
Precipitation:
20-30% chance of AM light snow showers/flurries
Snow Potential
Additional accumulations not expected
Wind:
Lighter W base winds around 10mph...summit winds 20-30mph
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Tuesday Feb 14, 2012
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base)
Lo 22°f / -6°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Cloudier with light snow during the day--not as cold with westerly breezes
Precipitation:
50-60% chance of mainly light snow
Snow Potential
Minor amounts possible for now--a trace to a few inches
Wind:
W-SW base breezes 10-15mph...summit winds 25-35mph
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Long range forecast / discussion...February 15 to 19
Mostly high pressure through midweek with a slight warmup and dry conditions. We'll be seeing upper troughing setting up through the west and pulling in more storms from the west later in the week. Storms would be weakened (a fairly flattened, zonal fow) and not as cold (mixing again?) as they head our way--watching Friday as a potential storm. The track may shift eastward a bit next weekend with a slightly better shot of more snowfall and less mixing with approaching storms (could be interesting)--CT
