Wolf Creek Ski Area (Base: 10,300', Top: 11,904')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, March 19, 2010Our reputation for customized, skier/boarder friendly forecasts is growing but we still need to get the word out to keep us going for next season. Please contact your favorite resort and put in a good word for us!
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 21, High 46 (Highest ~ 64 in 2004, Lowest ~ 02 in 1988)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 11, High 39 (Highest ~ 58 in 2004, Lowest ~ (-)11 in 1988)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 02 , High 27
:::SNOW:::
SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 19th at 6:15am...Today -> MORE SNOW ON A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER DAY; The low pressure system we have been watching is moving through, and carves south toward southwest CO. A strong cold front is moving through, and colder air is working in today (mild morning/ cold evening). Snow continues while the storm moves south to southern CO and northern NM. The cross-mountain wind flow becomes more north/ northeast, and then east as we move through the day. Jet stream energy is expected (though strongest winds stay to the west and south), with some upper level instability. The strong looking Canadian cold front that passes through will add some lifting mechanism for snow production across all areas. We expect moderate snow totals overall, with heaviest snow still east of the divide. East flow across the mountains will work against the upper level instability and lift we expect. Snow showers mostly end tonight/ Saturday morning. Snow totals are almost guaranteed to be all over the place, from resort to resort, with this one.
Saturday through Monday -> BREAK BETWEEN STORMS/ PARTLY CLOUDY; Low pressure moves eastward and out on Saturday, with a slightly unsettled pattern remaining under a strong northwest oriented jet stream. Most moisture is expected to be gone with the storm, but there should be enough lingering for some snow flurries and a sun/ cloud mix at times Saturday (increased winds also), mainly along the divide. Milder but still cool on Sunday, as high pressure builds in some (not as strong and spring-like as it was in recent days). Monday is a transition day, with shifting winds due to an approaching low pressure system out of the Northwest US. Partly cloudy skies are expected.
Tuesday and Wednesday -> THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN/ SNOW; Snow develops on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves in out of the northwest. The tendency has been for storms to target southern Colorado, so we will have to watch the projected path of this system for trends. Light to moderate snowfall is likely, and heavier snow is less likely but still possible.
Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM
Friday Mar 19, 2010
Hi 23°f / -5°c (base) Lo 4°f / -16°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Heavy Snow
Precipitation:
Snow definite (80%) (18 to 19 cm. | 7 to 8 in.)
Snow Potential
Expecting 7 to 8 inches of snowfall
Wind:
NE at up to 15 mph.
|
Saturday Mar 20, 2010
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base) Lo 8°f / -13°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Slight Chance of Snow Showers
Precipitation:
Snow likely (60%) - Snow Potential: (1 to 2 cm. | 0 to 1 in.)
Snow Potential
Expecting 0 to 1 inches of snowfall
Wind:
N at up to 10 mph.
|
Sunday Mar 21, 2010
Hi 31°f / -1°c (base) Lo 15°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Mostly Sunny
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
W at up to 5 mph.
|
Monday Mar 22, 2010
Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
WSW at up to 15 mph.
|
Tuesday Mar 23, 2010
Hi 29°f / -2°c (base) Lo 16°f / -9°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Partly Cloudy
Precipitation:
None expected
Snow Potential
Wind:
SW at up to 10 mph.
|
Wednesday Mar 24, 2010
Hi 26°f / -3°c (base) Lo 12°f / -11°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
40% Chance of snow
Snow Potential
Wind:
ENE at up to 20 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...March 23 to 26--There is a break in weather/ snow possible after next Tuesday/ Wednesday's storm, then another shot at snow possible for the last weekend in March (27th/ 28th). Pacific storms (with snow) should move through with good frequency right into April. The rest of April still looks potentially snowy (what we mean by "snowy" - at least 1 day with snow for every 2 sunny/ no snow days).
FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near to below average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM