Bear Mountain Resort (Base: 7,400', Top: 8,805')
6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, February 3, 2012Our reputation for customized, skier/boarder friendly forecasts is growing but we still need to get the word out. Please contact your favorite resort and put in a good word for us!
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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,790 feet (Big Bear Lake); Low 19, High 47 (Highest ~ 70 on January 31, 2003, Lowest ~ -25 on January 29, in 1979)
::: CHILLY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/ MILDER MONDAY/ CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY :::
DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 3rd...Today through Monday --MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES -- -> Skies look mostly clear and winds lighter as high pressure ridges in across the western US, up into Canada. Overhead, temperatures remain cool (26-28F at 10,000 feet, then 31 on Monday) and high pressure ridging weak, so temperatures on the ground are expected to warm very slowly, and remaining in the below average range.
Tuesday and Wednesday --CHANCE FOR SNOW -- -> A weakened low pressure system moves in off of the Pacific, and may slow while moving across California. There is a decent chance for snow on Tuesday and into Wednesday. We will have to watch this possibility closely. CM
Friday Feb 03, 2012
Hi 39°f / 28°f (base/top)
Lo 17°f / 20°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and cold with north breezes, and good snow making potential.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 16 to 20 hours of marginal at the base, and 20 to 24 hours of good up top.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NE at 10-20mph. Above 8,500 feet; NW at 10-20mph.
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Saturday Feb 04, 2012
Hi 42°f / 31°f (base/top)
Lo 12°f / 20°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear and continued chilly, great for snow making conditions. North breezes are expected to continue.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 15 to 19 hours of marginal at the base, and 20 to 24 hours of good up top.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming N/ NE at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; NW at 5-15mph.
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Sunday Feb 05, 2012
Hi 43°f / 33°f (base/top)
Lo 14°f / 23°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool with mostly light northwest breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 14 to 17 hours of marginal at the base, and 14 to 22 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming NW at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; NW at 5-15mph.
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Monday Feb 06, 2012
Hi 50°f / 42°f (base/top)
Lo 16°f / 34°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and milder still with increased breezes.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected. Snow Making potential; 6 to 10 hours of marginal at the base, and 0 hours up top.
Wind:
Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 5-15mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 10-20mph.
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Tuesday Feb 07, 2012
Hi 40°f / 32°f (base/top)
Lo 27°f / 21°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Becoming mostly cloudy and colder, with snow showers and southwest winds developing.
Precipitation:
30% chance for snow.
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall. Snow Making potential; 10 to 16 hours of marginal at the base, and 16 to 24 hours of marginal up top.
Wind:
S at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10-20 gusts to 30mph. Above 8,500 feet; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.
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Wednesday Feb 08, 2012
Hi 38°f / 3°c (base)
Lo 32°f / 0°c (base)
Sky Condition:
Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers
Precipitation:
Slight Chance (20%) of snow
Wind:
ENE at up to 15 mph.
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Long range forecast / discussion...February 09 to 12
--A storm moves in off the Pacific by the 7th/ 8th (next Tuesday/ Wednesday) as we were expecting, but not in the way we were expecting (via an undercutting jet stream, off the mid Pacific). It looks like the undercutting jet stream ("undercutting" the high pressure ridge across the northwest US) may not materialize. There is still a chance for this possibility, and the relatively milder/ wet storms it could deliver to the western US, but high pressure ridging across the west may hold until mid February. Despite this ridge, some rogue storms are still possible from mainly the 10th-15th. So, in this update we are not completely removing a forecast possibility of snowfall between now and mid February, but are saying it is not as likely as mostly sunny skies and overall tranquil weather. We are watching for potential snow as we move into the 2nd half of February.
We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter period, weakening now and through the spring, into the summer. CM
