6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 8, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At 6,230 feet (Tahoe City); Low 19, High 40 (Highest ~ 59 in 1963, Lowest ~ (-)13 in 1989)
-At 8,000 feet (About the base elevation of Kirkwood, "Twin Lakes"); Low 16, High 39

:::PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN APPROACHING STORM:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 8th at 10:44am...Today -> SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS; Partly cloudy and milder today with an approaching low pressure system. This system moves in overnight, mainly toward Tuesday morning, with accumulating snowfall (we have put all of the forecast snow for this storm into Tuesday's info box below).

Tuesday -> SNOW, BEST IN THE MORNING, LIGHT AFTERWARD; The Pacific storm offshore moves in as a compact closed low pressure system, with the best shot at accumulations occurring in the morning as we have a brief window of southwest flow and close proximity to the low. The center of the low remains west of the Sierras, and drifts south through the day, greatly decreasing potential forcing and moisture across the mountains. That being said, we still expect moderate amounts of snowfall along the western side of the Sierras, mainly west of Tahoe (Kirkwood will fare better in this storm). Areas to the north and east of the Lake will likely receive less snow, though an easterly flow after the morning hours allows for the rest of Tahoe to continue seeing snow through the day, ending in the evening or sooner.

Wednesday -> CLEARING, SOME CLOUDS; A weak ridge of high pressure builds in out ahead of another low pressure system approaching from offshore.

Thursday and Friday -> SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY; Another storm approaches, with snow showers developing mostly Thursday night and through Friday. We expect light snow accumulation Thursday night, then just some mostly non-accumulating light snow showers through Friday as the system crosses mainly to the south.

Saturday and Sunday -> MOSTLY SUNNY; A block (blocking high pressure ridge) develops over the west coast into Canada, with mostly sunny skies and milder temperatures across the region all weekend.

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Monday Feb 08, 2010 Hi 37°f / 28°f (base/top) Lo 14°f / 16°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy through the day. Snow flurries are possible by afternoon and evening. Cloudy overnight, with more steady snow showers by early morning (forecast totals for the storm in the Tuesday block). Precipitation: Isolated snow flurries by afternoon/ evening. Snow definite after midnight. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snowfall overnight. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 5 to 15mph.	Tuesday Feb 09, 2010 Hi 25°f / 17°f (base/top) Lo 17°f / 12°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Cloudy and colder with southwest winds becoming northeast. Moderate snow showers are expected in the morning, becoming lighter and more scattered out by the afternoon. Snow showers end in the evening. Precipitation: Snow. Snow Potential 5 to 6 inches of snowfall (6 to 8 inches of storm total snowfall). Wind: SW at 10 to 20mph, becoming NE at 5 to 15mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph, becoming NE at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Wednesday Feb 10, 2010 Hi 34°f / 24°f (base/top) Lo 17°f / 14°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Clearing to partly cloudy and cool, with continued mostly light breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4 to 12mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; NW at 10 to 20mph.
Thursday Feb 11, 2010 Hi 39°f / 30°f (base/top) Lo 16°f / 23°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy through the day with milder temperatures. Snow flurries are possible by evening, and snow showers overnight. Precipitation: 30% chance for snow by afternoon, then snow likely overnight. Snow Potential 3 to 5 inches of snowfall overnight. Wind: S/ SW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Friday Feb 12, 2010 Hi 31°f / 23°f (base/top) Lo 23°f / 17°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Cloudy and colder with variable winds, and scattered light snow showers. Precipitation: 50% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of additional snowfall. Wind: Variable at 5 to 15mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Saturday Feb 13, 2010 Hi 41°f / 31°f (base/top) Lo 15°f / 21°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and cool with north breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: N at 5 to 15mph. Winds above 9,000 feet; N at 10 to 20mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17

--Blocking high pressure holds through most of next week, effectively blocking most potential snow from reaching the area. We will have to watch for cut-off or closed low pressure systems that may move into the picture in that time frame (for possible snow). Late next week, the 19th and through next weekend, low pressure offshore may drive moderate to heavy snowfall into northern California (the storm would favor northern California this time). It looks like the El Nino pattern may be weakening, and our jet stream may be set to shift further north as we go into late February (slow transition between the 16th and 20th or so, but the blocking high pressure ridge over the west coast needs to move). This would mean that storms moving in will start to target northern California, with heaviest potential snowfall shifting to the Tahoe region and north. We would also have the jet stream back with us to help crank out heavier totals. We will be watching.

--WINTER OUTLOOK FROM OCTOBER; For the Tahoe region, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some heavy snow to start falling this month and in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, with some wide variations and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM