6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 8, 2010

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At 6,800 feet (near base elevation); Low 21, High 48 (Highest ~ 72 in 1963, Lowest ~ (-)06 in 1985)
-At 8,600 feet (near the resort summit elevation); Low NA, High 43

:::PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILDER:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 8th at 1:21pm...Today -> SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS; Partly cloudy and milder today with 1 low pressure system out of the picture and another in the pipeline for Tuesday.

Tuesday -> SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING; The Pacific storm offshore moves in as a compact closed low pressure system, with accumulating moderate and heavy (but relatively brief) snow showers occurring in the later afternoon and evening. 500mb temperatures are near -30, which will allow for thunderstorm development and some resultant isolated but very heavy snow showers possible. Moisture in this system looks limited, as does the amount of time we have for heavy snow accumulation, but everything else looks great for snow production. We have bumped up our forecast totals, but we still do not expect the overall accumulations to be heavy.

Wednesday -> SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON OR SOONER; The low pressure system moves slowly southeast into Arizona, with snow showers on northeast winds in the morning. Partly cloudy skies develop by noon to early afternoon. Temperatures look quite cold in the morning, then chilly in the afternoon (significant warming by afternoon as the cold core of the closed low moves out).

Thursday -> MOSTLY SUNNY; A ridge of high pressure builds in briefly, with developing west wind as the next low pressure system approaches. Sunny skies and milder temperatures are expected.

Friday -> LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE; Another storm approaches, with light snow showers possibly developing on Friday. We expect light snow accumulation as the system crosses the area mainly just to the north. Moisture looks limited for now.

Saturday and Sunday -> MOSTLY SUNNY; A block (blocking high pressure ridge) develops over the west coast into Canada, with mostly sunny skies across the region all weekend. We will have to watch and see how slow the storm system from Friday moves east, as a slow projected movement may keep temperatures cool to chilly with north winds.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

Tuesday Feb 09, 2010 Hi 38°f / 31°f (base/top) Lo 21°f / 16°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Party cloudy with some isolated snow showers sweeping through in the morning. Cloudy with winds increasing in the afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy snow showers are expected by later afternoon/ evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop, with very heavy snow showers possible underneath them. Snow showers become lighter overnight. Precipitation: Snow definite. Snow Potential 3 to 5 inches of snowfall. Snow making potential; Good at the base, good up top. Wind: Increasing to S/ SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 40mph.	Wednesday Feb 10, 2010 Hi 32°f / 25°f (base/top) Lo 14°f / 9°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Cloudy with north winds developing, and scattered mostly light snow showers in the morning through early afternoon. Skies clear to partly cloudy in the later afternoon. Precipitation: Snow likely. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of additional accumulation. Snow making potential; Good to high volume at the base, high volume up top. Wind: Becoming NE at 10 to 20mph.	Thursday Feb 11, 2010 Hi 45°f / 40°f (base/top) Lo 21°f / 24°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy (high clouds) and cool with developing west wind. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Snow making potential; Limited at the base, limited up top. Wind: Variable at 5 to 15mph, becoming W at 10 to 20mph.
Friday Feb 12, 2010 Hi 40°f / 35°f (base/top) Lo 26°f / 22°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Becoming mostly cloudy and cooler with developing snow showers. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 to 2 inches of snow. Snow making potential; Limited at the base, good up top. Wind: Becoming W at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.	Saturday Feb 13, 2010 Hi 38°f / 32°f (base/top) Lo 25°f / 23°f (base/top) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and chilly with north winds. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Snow making potential; Good at the base, good up top. Wind: N at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.	Sunday Feb 14, 2010 Hi 49°f / 9°c (base) Lo 28°f / -2°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly Sunny Precipitation: None expected Snow Potential Wind: NE at up to 10 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 14 to 17

--Blocking high pressure holds through most of next week, effectively blocking most potential snow from reaching the area. We will have to watch for cut-off or closed low pressure systems that may move into the picture in that time frame (for possible snow). Late next week, the 19th and through next weekend, low pressure offshore may drive moderate snowfall into central and southern California (the storm would favor northern California this time). It looks like the El Nino pattern may be weakening, and our jet stream may be set to shift further north as we go into late February (transition between the 16th and 20th or so). This would mean that storms moving in will start to target northern California more, with heaviest potential snowfall shifting to the Tahoe region and north. That being said, cut-off low pressure systems are still possible, and these are capable of heavy snow. Otherwise, mostly light to moderate snowfalls and Santa Ana winds in between (as storms to the north deposit cold air over Nevada/ Utah, which then moves south into SoCal as north winds) is the possible pattern. We will be watching.

--WINTER OUTLOOK (FROM OCTOBER); For the the SoCal mountain resort areas, we expect heavier than average snowfall, with most of it from January 1st onward, though we do expect some snow to start falling mainly in December. Temperatures are expected to be near average, and combined with greater than average available moisture with incoming storms, this should be enough to generate above average snowfall. We also expect some wide variations in temperatures, and extreme cold spells. We will be adding more detail to this as we go along. CM