6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, September 6, 2010
*Aspen-Snowmass Resort is a sponsor of this forecast, please thank them if you get a chance*
We appreciate your use of the site! Here is a link to our Facebook page (you need to cut and paste);
http://www.facebook.com/snowforecast.com
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;
-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 42, High 72(Highest ~ 86 in 1998, Lowest ~ 32+ in 2001) -At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 33, High 66(Highest ~ 80 in 1978, Lowest ~ 25+ in 2001) -At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low 30, High 55
::: CLEARING, COOL, WINDY :::
SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 6th at 5:55am...Today--COOLER, SNOW FLURRIES ABOVE 9,000 FEET EARLY---> It is 32 degrees with winds gusting to 40mph up at 12,000 feet (Berthoud Pass), and clouds are just now clearing from very isolated showers and some high elevation flurries. The reporting stations at Aspen and Leadville are reporting decreasing clouds this morning, and Leadville was reporting some light showers. The Gulf of Alaska low pressure system is to the north, with a disturbance skirting the area this morning (reason for the clouds and few showers in spots). Skies clear out during the day along with decreasing winds, as the low pressure system moves rapidly east to the Upper Midwest.
Tuesday and Wednesday --WARMER, BREEZY/ WINDY, SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS-- -> A large scale trough of low pressure remains across the west coast, and across Colorado, higher pressure aloft noses in some. Meanwhile, low pressure out west is carving south across California and some moisture is creeping into Colorado from the south, for isolated thunderstorms possible beginning Tuesday afternoon. Other than the isolated thunderstorms, we expect warmer temperatures, and southwest breezes mainly above timberline, all under partly cloudy skies.
Thursday and Friday --COOLER, WINDS INCREASE, CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW-- -> The second low pressure system that was digging south across California moves eastward into/ across Colorado and weakens as it does, with cool showers and a chance for high elevation (roughly 10,000 feet+) snow on Thursday. Snow levels drop to near 9,000 feet into Friday morning as the low crosses Colorado, and a dusting of snow is possible.
Saturday and Sunday --WARMER, MOSTLY SUNNY-- -> An upper level ridge of high pressure builds in, with warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies. We will have to watch for potential afternoon thunderstorms as moisture may seep in from the south (in general, low pressure remains across the northwest US). CM
Monday
Sep 06, 2010
Hi 65°f / 46°f (base/top) Lo 38°f / 30°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cool, with very isolated showers early (very isolated snow showers above 9,000 feet). Skies clear to mostly clear, with decreasing winds through the day.
Wind:
Decreasing to W at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Winds above timberline; Decreasing to W at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph. (Gusts to 65mph are possible above timberline early)
Tuesday
Sep 07, 2010
Hi 67°f / 47°f (base/top) Lo 32°f / 30°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy and drier, with warmer temperatures. Some cloud build-ups develop in the afternoon, with very isolated thunderstorms developing.
Precipitation:
10% chance for showers.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
Wednesday
Sep 08, 2010
Hi 73°f / 53°f (base/top) Lo 37°f / 34°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear to partly cloudy with warmer temperatures. Isolated thunderstorms develop by afternoon. Winds continue about the same.
Precipitation:
10% chance for showers.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S/ SW at 5 to 15mph. Winds above timberline; SW at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph.
Thursday
Sep 09, 2010
Hi 74°f / 54°f (base/top) Lo 40°f / 33°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and mild, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, mainly after noon (snow above 10,000 feet). Colder overnight, with snow levels dropping to near 8,500 feet, and isolated showers still possible.
Precipitation:
20% chance for showers. Snow levels start near 10,000, dropping to 8,500 feet.
Snow Potential
No accumulation expected.
Wind:
Increasing to SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; Increasing to SW at 30 to 45 gusts to 65mph.
Friday
Sep 10, 2010
Hi 61°f / 42°f (base/top) Lo 36°f / 26°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Partly cloudy and cooler, with isolated showers possible mainly in the morning (snow level near 8,500 feet). Clouds start clearing after the morning hours, with west winds continuing.
Precipitation:
20% chance for showers early.
Snow Potential
No accumulation expected.
Wind:
W at 10 to 20 gusts to 25mph. Winds above timberline; W at 20 to 30 gusts to 40mph.
Saturday
Sep 11, 2010
Hi 67°f / 47°f (base/top) Lo 31°f / 29°f (base/top)
Sky Condition:
Mostly clear, cool (but warmer), and drier with breezy conditions continuing.
Precipitation:
None expected.
Snow Potential
None expected.
Wind:
S/ W at 5 to 15mph by afternoon. Winds above timberline; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
Long range forecast / discussion...September 12 to 15
--High pressure aloft and warming temperatures continue into next week. By Mid-September, we may (still) see a stronger early season Gulf of Alaska low pressure system develop across the northwest US and push through Colorado with another reminder of fall, in the form of light snow potential above 9,000 feet mainly. We likely see several+ days of warming and tranquil weather, followed by stronger low pressure possible after the 20th of September (it is common for storms to be progressively stronger and colder as we get deeper into the late summer and fall).
A La Nina SST pattern (gaining strength) is here for the fall/ winter, through possibly the season following (through 2012). This usually bodes well for northern Colorado resorts, but we will work up some comparisons of analog years this summer to see what we may expect. CM
