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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 08, High 36 (Highest ~ 57 in 1999, Lowest ~ (-)24 in 1989)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elevation for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 00, High 29 (Highest ~ 50 in 2007, Lowest ~ (-)22 in 1989)
-At 12,500 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in Colorado); Low -04, High 21

:::COLDER, SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES:::

SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT 6 DAYS -//> UPDATED FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 8th at 5:47am...Today -> The Pacific storm system we have been watching is moving across northern New Mexico on its way into Texas, and most moisture this morning is located across the southern 1/3rd of Colorado. To the north of this (I-70 and nearby areas) we have lingering mostly snow flurries, and some clouds with clear skies mixed in. A cold Canadian low pressure system is over the northern plains, and a cold front is pushing in out of the north. The moisture layer has become shallow across the area, and the flow aloft is an unsettled northwest today, with lingering light snow flurries or very light snow showers this morning. We expect a mix of sun and clouds, with snow flurries at any time today. Winds remain mostly light and northerly, with chilly temperatures.

Tuesday -> Partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy and continued chilly (cold frontal air mass lingers across the area), with not much winds as another Pacific low pressure system, more compact, sends moisture in across Colorado on a southwest flow aloft (mainly late day, and mostly middle and high level clouds). We do not expect snow, though we may see some flurries in the evening and overnight.

Wednesday and Thursday -> The Pacific low pressure system moves through mainly to the south, with some disturbances aloft passing over Colorado as a low pressure trough moves through the Rockies. This is expected to generate some light snow accumulation Wednesday into Thursday, clearing overnight Thursday. We do not expect to be socked in with clouds during this time, especially the first half of Thursday as clouds clear some. Northwest winds increase on Thursday, and this may help generate some light additional snowfall, especially across northwest facing slopes.

Friday -> A weak high pressure ridge aloft builds in, with partly cloudy skies and "warmer" temperatures. Winds look mostly light for most of the mountain.

Saturday and Sunday -> Blocking high pressure ridging starts to form over the west coast and into the Rockies, while another compact low pressure system may form and move in toward the desert southwest. Moisture from across the plains may be drawn in to this low, and help produce some light snow (favoring the front range and east slopes along the divide) across Colorado. We do not expect much snow at this time.

Please submit any ideas or comments to chris@snowforecast.com. We appreciate your use of the site! CM

--A weak ridge of high pressure across the area, and blocking high pressure ridge across the western US is possible from roughly the 15th to the 19th, with weakened storms punching through at times, but otherwise not much weather is expected. After this, strong Pacific storms start pushing into the west coast, and moisture feeds into Colorado. Storms should be a bit more favorable for northern regions at this time. We will watch and see how this unfolds. (From earlier discussions) Until we see the jet stream consolidate across the Rockies (it is a "split stream" and has been), most storms will either be southerly movers (big storms for southwest CO, lighter snow to the north) or weakened storms that favor the north. That being said, some of these "weakened" storms may be moist and energetic enough to crank out some marginal powder day totals up north, which we have seen at times this season. The explanation of our weather pattern is a bit of an over-simplification, but the jet stream is a major player in our expected weather. February may end up being an average (improved) month for the north (mainly during the second half, which looks improved, with March and April potentially snowy months.

FROM OCTOBER; This winter we expect heavier than average snowfall for southwest Colorado, from Telluride to Wolf Creek, up to Crested Butte. For Aspen, we expect slightly above average snowfall, and from Breckenridge to Winter Park we expect near to below average snowfall. Temperatures are expected to be colder than average overall, with wide variations and some extreme cold periods. CM