Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Today looks mostly sunny, with breezy and drier conditions as the unusually cold low pressure system to the north (that dropped snow in the high mountains of Idaho and Montana) retreats to the north and east. Wednesday through the weekend continues mostly dry and warmer under a west flow aloft, but mostly sunny conditions dominate. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms return for Aspen this weekend. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - We plan to bring this back in the fall, unless we receive interest in firing the longer range forecast back up, sooner.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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