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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Today and Thursday we see a cold low pressure system end up over southwest New Mexico, with skies clearing out as high pressure ridging aloft builds in. Thursday through the weekend look warmer and drier under mostly sunny skies. Please see the long range forecast for more. CM
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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - Early next week, Mon/ Tue the 12/ 13th, a low pressure system moves through to the north, maybe increasing winds some, but we look dry. Mid and late next week (14th on and for a few days) we may see thunderstorms and showers move in across the area again. More detail is coming if this continues to look like a reality. Otherwise, the western US as a whole looks drier and warmer than usual right into late October under unusually strong high pressure ridging aloft. The Northwest US will be affected at times by low pressure systems moving in off the Gulf of Alaska, for some high mountain snow and valley rain (WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY).
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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