Views: 66625 Favorites: 107Add

Webcams

WebCam 1
Lakeside Village
Keystone Resort Webcam
Webcam 2
Snow Stake - 11,237 feet
Keystone Resort Webcam

Location Information

City
Dillon
State
Colorado
Country
United States
Keystone Resort Keystone Resort Featured Hot
15+ day computer snowfall prediction (longer range can be dicey)
Short Range Forecast Discussion

->This free forecast is brought to you courtesy of Aspen-Snowmass Resort<-
Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Tuesday, October 21, 2014 - Today and Wednesday a weakening Gulf of Alaska low pressure system moves into mainly the northern and brushing the central Rocky Mountains (including Aspen, CO) with increased showers, cooler temperatures, and accumulating snowfall above mainly 10,000 feet as it passes through. By Thursday and Friday we clear out with drier air and mostly sunny skies as a strong high pressure ridge builds in across the southwest US. This should be a good time to hike with no thunderstorms, and mostly sunny skies + warmer temperatures. Saturday continues mild, with gusty winds as high pressure weakens due to strong low pressure pushing in across the entire northwest US, and then into the central Rocky Mountains on Sunday. On Sunday we could see a shot of snow across Colorado, and base to top for Aspen as temperatures may really drop, the coldest yet. CM

Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
12,408 ft
9,280 ft
3,128 ft
3+mi
RESORT INFO ↑35° ↓29° ↑51° ↓29°
  • Last Update 13 Oct @ 10:10
  • Snow Past 24 Hours 0 in
  • Snow Past 48 Hours 0 in
  • Season Total 0 in
  • Average Base Depth 0 in
Comments
None Reported
Today's Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall above 10,500 feet
What's Open?
  • Trails0 of 135
  • Lifts0 of 20
  • Acreage0 of 3148 (0%)
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone
21 Tuesday ↑35° ↓29° ↑51° ↓29°
Sky Condition
Partly to mostly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the day and through overnight. Winds are expected to increase, mainly up top.
Precipitation
40% chance for showers (base/ in town), 60% chance for showers (upper mountain)
Snow Potential
1 to 2 inches of snowfall above 10,500 feet
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Above timberline; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in/ near any thunderstorm.
22 Wednesday ↑31° ↓24° ↑48° ↓30°
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Snow levels run near 9,000 feet (morning), rising to 10,000 feet (late day). Showers become isolated and end in the evening.
Precipitation
50% chance for showers (morning), 20% chance (late day)
Snow Potential
A trace to 1 inch of snow above 9,000 feet
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW/ NW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; SW/ NW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Wind gusts to 40mph are possible in/ near any thunderstorm.
23 Thursday ↑35° ↓24° ↑52° ↓21°
Sky Condition
Clearing to partly cloudy, drier and milder after a chilly morning.
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming W/ NW at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Above timberline; NW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph.
24 Friday ↑43° ↓31° ↑60° ↓23°
Sky Condition
Mostly clear, drier and warmer with less wind.
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph.
25 Saturday ↑44° ↓30° ↑61° ↓35°
Sky Condition
Becoming partly cloudy and relatively warm with increasing winds (approaching storm).
Precipitation
None expected
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; SW at 5-15mph, becoming SW at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Above timberline; SW at 20 to 35 gusts to 50mph.
26 Sunday ↑48°  9c° ↓23°  -5c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy with a chance for wintry mix
Precipitation
Isolated Wintry Mix (Potential precip: 0.01in, 0.15mm)
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the WSW at 11 to 22 MPH.
Long Range Forecast Discussion:

7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 26 October to 05 November, 2014 - Early next week (27-28th) more low pressure moves in across the northwest US (resort snowfall for WA/ OR/ ID/ MT), while high pressure (mostly sunny and milder weather) builds across Utah/ Colorado (incl. Aspen, CO) and the southwest US. By mid and late next week (29-31 Oct) a strong and cold storm (strongest/ coldest yet) moves into the northwest US south to Lake Tahoe and Mammoth, with snow spreading across the resorts of the northwest US (ID/ WA/ OR) and Tahoe mid week, then east to Montana/ Wyoming/ Utah and Colorado the 30th and through Halloween (Halloween snowfall potential for Aspen-Snowmass). Dry weather is expected across the southwest US including southern California. <-- This is still on track. Storms should become more frequent with less sunny weather overall (of course this is seasonal) after a brief break the first 1-3 days of November (high pressure overhead and mostly sunny, milder the first 1 - 3 days of Nov for Aspen-Snowmass), with more resort elevation snowfalls expected north of a line from Tahoe to Colorado moving in afterward. CM

Longer Range Outlook

As of now, October 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern hold across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies yield a weak El Nino pattern across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development is on track, but it will be weak at least to start, still favorable for California and the desert Southwest, plus much of Colorado and northern New Mexico). Please note; Many computer models indicate the El Nino SST pattern may become moderate strength later this fall and early 2015, with would help focus more of the Gulf of Alaska storm action across the southwest US and California, where its desperately needed.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

A weak El Nino is now being predicted for this fall and winter, into early 2015. It looks like the early season (October/ November) will see more rain and snow for southern and central California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. This should help kick off the early season for places like Mammoth Mountain. This should also help build up a better than average base of snow for Aspen-Snowmass and Taos Ski Valley. Temperatures are expected to be near and below average for these areas as well, which helps. Maybe Thanksgiving will be pretty good for many more areas across the southwest, and even for Squaw Valley in Tahoe. The Northwest US is expecting a drier and milder than usual fall, with less snowfall than average, though with their usual heavy snowfall, especially in the Cascades, this drier/ milder than average fall season could still be good for resorts across the northwest US, mainly along the Cascades, less so inland.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker (it looks like this is the case with the current El Nino, which was expected to be strong initially.

To summarize, the possibility of an El Nino pattern this fall and winter are "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to hold this fall and winter. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after the wet monsoon summer across the southwest US (we forecast this in the spring). Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should expect a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). Tahoe/ Mammoth should see near average snowfall

Keystone is home to three magnificent mountain playgrounds—Dercum Mountain, North Peak, and The Outback. There’s something special for every skier and rider of any level at each mountain. There are more than 3,000 vertical feet and over 3,000 acres of bumps and bowls, glades and steeps, groomers and rollers to be experienced.

Map

Swap Start/End