Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Wednesday, September 02, 2015
Today through Friday, we see a strong and cold low pressure system and associated large scale trough continuing to affect parts of the northwest US, and places Colorado under an increasing amount of moisture and increasing thunderstorm and shower potential each day. Today we are looking mostly dry, breezy, and milder (great hiking weather), with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms for Aspen-Snowmass, though afternoon thunderstorms increase for the San Juan Mountains/ southwest Colorado as subtropical moisture from the Arizona starts moving in. Thursday and Friday, and into Saturday we see an upswing in thunderstorms and showers, as a low pressure system and its associated energy moves inland from the Pacific Northwest, further helping to draw some subtropical moisture into the area from the desert southwest. Sunday and Monday look drier and on the cool side with mostly sunny skies under a drier weather pattern. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week we see an increase in potential afternoon thunderstorms and showers as more moisture is pulled in from the tropics. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - We plan to bring this back in the fall, unless we receive interest in firing the longer range forecast back up, sooner.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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