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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Saturday (at 6:36am), May 28, 2016
We are under a stabilizing weather pattern today as low pressure exits and high pressure ridging overhead builds slightly. We expect some isolated afternoon thunderstorms and showers this afternoon, more concentrated over the divide, with mostly sunny skies otherwise. . On Sunday we see a weakening low pressure system, but more unstable air mass move in, with increased mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers. Most places will likely see some showers on Sunday, including Aspen-Snowmass. Showers linger into Monday but decrease. On Tuesday we see a few factors working to increase thunderstorms, mainly afternoon again, but possible, mostly isolated, at night also. The weather pattern becomes more stable on Wednesday with less chance for thunderstorms. CM.
LONGER RANGE FORECAST -
Next week we start out with a mostly dry southwest flow across the area, then as we move toward mid and late next week we see cooler and more showery weather, with the usual thunderstorm activity.
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Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
Spring into Summer - The El Nino SST pattern is weakening, and expected to transition to a La Nina as we move into early summer. What we are expecting for ski resort regions is this;
Northwest US/ Southwest Canada/ WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY, and AB/ BC - Milder than average temperatures with average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, good enough to build snow pack and keep resorts happy), then wetter and cooler than usual for May/ June (even some additional snow pack in the mountains mainly above 5,000 feet), dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm...
Southwest US/ SoCal to Mammoth/ Arizona/ New Mexico/ southern Utah/ southwest Colorado - Cooler than average temperatures with above average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow for March/ April (in other words, more than usual additional snow pack), and continued wetter/ cooler than usual for May/ June (additional snow pack for the Sierra Nevada Mountains mainly above 7,000 feet), then dry in July/ August except for the occasional thunderstorm (north), but a possibly stronger than usual monsoon pattern (more thunderstorms/ rain) for eastern CA deserts/ mountains (incl. Big Bear) through New Mexico...
Colorado/ northern New Mexico - Near average amounts of valley rain and mountain snow with slightly above average temperatures for March but mainly April, then near average precip + near average temperatures for May/ June. Cooler and wetter than usual conditions are expected (north) in July/ August with greater amounts of monsoon pattern rains/ storms, near average temps and precip (south)...CM
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