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Aspen
State
Colorado
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Short Range Forecast Discussion

->This free forecast is brought to you courtesy of Aspen-Snowmass Resort<-
Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Tuesday September 16, 2014 - Today and Wednesday looks continued mostly dry under a strong upper-level high pressure ridge, with very isolated afternoon thunderstorms mainly over the higher ridges and peaks. We expect mostly sunny and dry conditions otherwise. Thursday and Friday we see previously expected deep subtropical moisture from the remnants of Odile now move to the south of the area across Arizona and New Mexico, with now continued mostly dry conditions and isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms and showers, otherwise warm and mostly sunny. Saturday through Monday we expect upper-level high pressure ridging to build in overhead, with warm temperatures and dry conditions to start, then increased moisture and mainly afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday (increased T-storms/ showers). CM

Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
12,510 ft
8,104 ft
4,406 ft
5.3mi
RESORT INFO ↑58° ↓38° ↑81° ↓44°
  • Last Update 20 Apr @ 05:04
  • Snow Past 24 Hours 0 in
  • Snow Past 48 Hours 0 in
  • Season Total 231 in
  • Average Base Depth 0 in
Comments
None Reported
Today's Snow Potential
None expected
What's Open?
  • Trails0 of 97
  • Lifts0 of 21
  • Acreage0 of 3362 (0%)
Other Info
  • Additional ReportsNone
18 Thursday ↑58° ↓38° ↑81° ↓44°
Sky Condition
Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy and warmer, with again very isolated thunderstorms and showers possible in the afternoon, dissipating in the evening.
Precipitation
10% chance for mainly afternoon showers
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming W at 5 to 15 gusts to 20mph. Above timberline; W at 10 to 20 gusts to 30mph. Wind gusts to 40mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
19 Friday ↑56° ↓38° ↑78° ↓46°
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy and warm, with less isolated (increased) thunderstorms and showers possible in the afternoon, dissipating in the evening again.
Precipitation
30% chance for mainly afternoon showers
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming W at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; Becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
20 Saturday ↑54° ↓36° ↑78° ↓45°
Sky Condition
Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy and warm, with isolated thunderstorms and showers possible in the afternoon, mostly dissipating in the evening.
Precipitation
20% chance for mainly afternoon showers
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; Becoming SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
21 Sunday ↑53° ↓36° ↑74° ↓46°
Sky Condition
Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy and not as warm, with scattered thunderstorms and showers possible in the afternoon/ evening, some heavy, then becoming isolated overnight.
Precipitation
40% chance for afternoon/ evening showers, then isolated overnight
Snow Potential
None expected
Wind
Base; Variable at 4-12mph, becoming SW at 5 to 15mph. Above timberline; SW at 15 to 25 gusts to 35mph. Wind gusts to 45mph are possible in any thunderstorm.
22 Monday ↑48°  9c° ↓39°  4c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with isolated storms
Precipitation
Isolated Storms (Potential precip: 0.08in, 1.97mm)
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the WNW at 6 to 9 MPH.
23 Tuesday ↑48°  9c° ↓39°  4c° MID MTN
Sky Condition
Mostly cloudy with scattered storms
Precipitation
None Expected
Snow Potential
None Expected
Wind
From the WNW at 10 to 15 MPH.
Long Range Forecast Discussion:

7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - 21 September to 01 October, 2014 - It looks like upper-level high pressure ridging may re-establish strong, all across the western US, with above average temperatures and mostly isolated afternoon thunderstorm and shower potential, otherwise sunshine through much of September. The only caveat to that looks like late next week, when we may see the remnants of another Baja-bound Hurricane filter into the southwest US and then Colorado, with another increase in showers/ thunderstorms across Colorado, also Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. The last few days of September into early October may deliver a chilly Gulf of Alaska storm system with snow at the higher Colorado resort elevations. CM

Longer Range Outlook

As of now, September 2014, we are still on a path to see an El Nino Sea Surface Temperature pattern hold across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. August has shown a steady warming trend of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies across the eastern Equatorial Pacific (El Nino development is on track).

Current SST pattern- El Nino

A weak El Nino is now being predicted for this fall and winter, into early 2015. It looks like the early season (October/ November) will see more rain and snow for southern and central California, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. This should help kick off the early season for places like Mammoth Mountain. This should also help build up a better than average base of snow for Aspen-Snowmass and Taos Ski Valley. Temperatures are expected to be near and below average for these areas as well, which helps. Maybe Thanksgiving will be pretty good for many more areas across the southwest, and even for Squaw Valley in Tahoe. The Northwest US is expecting a drier and milder than usual fall, with less snowfall than average, though with their usual heavy snowfall, especially in the Cascades, this drier/ milder than average fall season could still be good for resorts across the northwest US, mainly along the Cascades, less so inland.

Current SST pattern- El Nino

The larger time-scale SST pattern in place right now is still a cool phase PDO, or negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). This is a more long term pattern (decades), and it has made any recent years El Nino SST patterns weaker (it looks like this is the case with the current El Nino, which was expected to be strong initially.

To summarize, the possibility of an El Nino pattern this fall and winter are "likely". Forecasts from other agencies are calling for El Nino conditions to hold this fall and winter. This would favor the southwest US (including southern California and across to Taos Ski Valley, even Aspen, Colorado) for heavier rain and snow this fall and mainly winter (2014-2015), after the wet monsoon summer across the southwest US (we forecast this in the spring). Northwest US areas, and southwest Canada, along with northern Colorado through Wyoming and the northern Rocky Mountains, should expect a drier than average, or near average snowfall winter (2014-2015). Tahoe/ Mammoth should see near average snowfall this winter. This is our outlook for now, and we will update as more info becomes available. All of this information is generated in-house.

We will keep this outlook updated as more information becomes available. If you want to know when the snow is coming (and be able to set unlimited alerts for any resort), within 5 minutes or less of us (our our sources) entering the data into any of our forecasts, be sure to download the app.

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We have a collective responsibility to ensure that our company is a rewarding place to work and our community a desirable place to live. We respect and nurture the delicate balance between “resort” and “community” that makes Aspen-Snowmass unique. The combination of our values-based company with unparalleled mountain sports, community, history, culture and environment gives us a unique market niche. We are successful because we live the values and principles expressed here.

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