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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Monday, November 30, 2015
TODAY - Low pressure moves slowly eastward onto the plains today, strengthening as it moves east, with an unsettled pattern overhead, lingering moisture, and favorable orographics for moderate snow across northern resorts and northwest slopes, lighter snow for Aspen. Temperatures look quite wintry today.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY - Low pressure moves further eastward, with clearing skies and cold air continuing in place, but plenty of sunshine. Wednesday looks a bit milder. We expect some low elevation temperature inversions to hold Aspen's nighttime and daytime temperatures down lower than the nearby mountains, as the more dense and cold air sits in the lower valley areas.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY - Low pressure moves into the Sierra Nevada Mountains Thursday night and Friday, then into Utah/ Colorado Friday through Saturday, with mostly light snow potential for western Colorado as this system weakens.
Please see the long range forecast for more. CM
Do you want to keep track of the US and southwest Canada snowpack? Check here >.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) -
Next Tuesday through Friday (through Dec 4th) we could see frequent and fast shots of snow (1 day of sun and the next snow, then a sunny day, etc.). A few days of stronger high pressure ridging and warmer temperatures may follow this.
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino continue this winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record since 1950. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016, which would make for a good year. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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