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Short Range Forecast Discussion - Updated for Friday, October 09, 2015
Today and Saturday we expect warm days after chilly mornings in the valley areas, as high pressure ridging aloft builds in. On Sunday we expect a low pressure system to skirt Aspen and western Colorado, with partly cloudy skies, slight cooling of temperatures, and increased winds. Dry weather and low humidity continues. Monday and well into next week look warmer and drier under mostly sunny skies as unusually persistent October high pressure ridging aloft holds. Please see the long range forecast for more. CM
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7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - Mid and late next week (14th on) it looks like the moisture previously expected to move northeast into Colorado for thunderstorms and showers should be delayed until that weekend, around the 17th/ 18th. Otherwise, the western US as a whole, including Aspen-Snowmass, looks drier and warmer than usual right into late October under unusually strong high pressure ridging aloft. The Northwest US and Southwest Canada (BC/ AB) will be affected at times by low pressure systems moving in off the Gulf of Alaska, for some high mountain snow and valley rain (WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY).
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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