Short range forecast-->
- We will soon be writing a short range weather forecast discussion here, covering the western US and southwest Canada. If you have any input/ requests/ critiques, please email them to me We have had 17 years so far online, forecasting detailed weather for resorts all across the western US, and gaining the trust of many.
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - Next Monday (12th) and through all of next week/ weekend, we expect mostly warmer than average temperatures and mostly sunny/ dry weather across most of the western US (including WA, OR, ID, WY), with low to no threat of thunderstorm activity. An exception to this; Mid to late next week (14th and for a few days), the southwest US including California/ Arizona/ Nevada/ Utah/ New Mexico, and Colorado may see showers and thunderstorms, but no real high mountain snow as this closed low pressure system becomes warmer as it moves south and west across Baja California, then north and east back into the southwest US. Other than this, the western US as a whole looks drier and warmer than usual right into late-October under unusually strong high pressure ridging aloft (there is more detail at the bottom of the page).
7 day to 2 week+ forecast (since 1998) - The western US and Southwest Canada, in general, looks drier and warmer than usual right into late October under unusually strong high pressure ridging aloft. The Northwest US and Southwest Canada (AB/ BC) will be affected at times by low pressure systems moving in off the Gulf of Alaska, for some high mountain snow and valley rain (WA/ OR/ ID/ MT/ WY).
The El Nino SST pattern is strong, right now, and it looks like we will see a VERY strong El Nino this fall and winter, possibly stronger than the 1997-1998 version, which is the strongest (in terms of SST anomaly) on record. This set-up would usually cause heavier rain and snow across California (mainly southern and central, possibly including Tahoe, but especially including Mountain High and Big Bear, as the epic 1997-1998 season can attest to) and the southwest US this winter. This would be a vast improvement for Tahoe-Mammoth. Southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico usually do well, including Taos Ski Valley, who had a great season in 2014-2015 with the weak El Nino(ish) anomaly. Aspen is in between, and we would say average snowfall should be expected at Aspen-Snowmass in 2015-2016. We will be posting a detailed outlook for Aspen-Snowmass, Squaw Valley/ Tahoe, Mountain High, and Taos Ski Valley in the coming months. We will be monitoring the progress of this right here, stay tuned... CM
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