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BIG BEAR LAKE SNOWFALL STUDY

THESE RECORDS ARE ALL WE HAVE TO WORK WITH (FOR NOW), EXCEPT FOR LAKE ARROWHEAD WHICH IS ONLY AT 5,200' AND NOT AS REPRESENTATIVE OF RESORT ELEVATIONS. NOTE HOWEVER THAT CONSIDERING THE ELEVATION, LAKE ARROWHEAD GETS SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW (shown below). WE DID USE THOSE ARROWHEAD RECORDS WITH SOME OLDER BBL DAM RECORDS TO COME UP WITH AN ESTIMATED MORE RECENT AVERAGE FOR THE BIG BEAR LAKE DAM (way below). (If you have comments, requests, or additions on/ for/ to this study, please submit via e-mail.

From NCEP; The following list of cold (La Niņa) and warm (El Niņo) episodes has been compiled to provide a season-by-season breakdown of conditions in the tropical Pacific.  We have attempted to classify the intensity of each event by focusing on a key region of the tropical Pacific (along the equator from 150°W to the date line).  The process of classification was primarily subjective using reanalyzed sea surface temperature analyses produced at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center and at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.  An objective procedure for classifying intensity is being explored at NCEP/CPC. 

In the table below, weak periods are designated as C- (Weak La Nina) or W- (Weak El Nino), moderate strength periods as C (Moderate La Nina) or W (Moderate El Nino),  strong periods as W+ (Strong El Nino) or C+ (strong La Nina), and neutral periods.

--> We (snowforecast) color coded the 3 month periods to show trends more clearly.

YEAR
 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
1960

 

7.7"
1961

12"

1.5"

 

6.7"

1962

94.5"

0"

 

0"
1963

26.3"

16"

 

23"
1964

29.5"

8.8"

 

60"
1965

17"

68"

 

22.5"
1966

6"

0"

 

3.9"
1967

35"

12"

 

34.8"
1968

6"

0"

 

17"
1969

102"

10"

 

12.5"
1970

11"

10"

 

-M-
1971

-M-

-M-

 

-M-
1972

0"

2.5"

 

0"
1973

-M-

.5"

 

8"
1974

58"

0"

 

20"
1975

43"

18"

 

24"
1976

-M-

2"

 

8"
1977

71"

0"

 

-M-
1978

-M-

0"

 

52"
1979

107.5"

0"

 

0"
1980

11"

3"

 

0"
1981

51.5"

0"

 

6.5"
1982

99"

16"

 

39.5"
1983

69"

7.6"

 

7.5"
1984

3.5"

5.3"

 

46.5"
1985

35.5"

0"

 

25.8"
1986

25.5"

1"

 

4.5"
1987

60.7"

2.5"

 

27.3"
1988

25"

11"

 

20.5"
1989

31.5"

2.5"

1.5"

11.3"
1990

101.3"

1"

 

13.1"
1991

99.3"

0"

 

31.3"
1992

73"

0"

 

36.5"
1993

71.3"

.5" Jun

 

18"
1994

40.5"

3"

 

29"
1995

73"

2.5"

 

6"
1996

36.8"

0"

 

6.3"
1997

35.5"

1"

 

24.1"
1998

79.5"

23.9"

 

4"
1999

14.8"

24.8"
.5" June

 

0"
2000

62.4"

5.4"

 

3.7"
2001

57.2"

11.3"

 

8.3"
2002

7.5"

0"

 

0"
2003

23.3"

.2"

 N  
2004 42.8" 4.2" 0" 15.5"
Average-> 42.8" 4.2" 0" 15.5"
El Nino" avg-> 54.2" 6.7" 0" 21.9"











--> COMMENTS ON THE ABOVE SNOWFALL TABLE; We put together an interesting study while looking at past snowfall records. First, we were VERY disappointed with the available snowfall records for Big Bear Lake, which have many months with NO records, and months with missing days. This made it difficult to trust the records, and consequently made it difficult to come up with a good snowfall comparison.

--> Please note that in "La Nada" months (denoted by the green background) that were recorded, snowfall totals ranged from 0" to some of the heaviest snow recorded. Something you would have in a "La Nada" season like the one expected this season (03-04'), is more cold temperatures than in a normal El Nino season. The last 3 "La Nada" seasons at Big Bear Lake saw; 1989-1990 - about 112.6" (over 100" Jan - Mar), 1996-1997 - 41.8", 2001-2002 - 15.8" (about the worst season on record besides 1979-1980). Also note that one of the best seasons recorded, 1978-1979 with 159.5" was a La Nada season (the following season 1979-1980 shows only 14" snowfall). This should indicate the possibilities, it could completely stink or be epic, we are hoping for epic, and believe we are way overdue.

--> Please keep in mind that these totals are at lake level, which is lower than the resorts but not by much. Also keep in mind that "snow fall" does not equal "snow depth". Snow depth is affected by compaction and snow water content, etc., so snow depth is usually a smaller number...though we do not work with snow depth in this study.

-->We wanted to figure out a newer snowfall average for the Big Bear Lake Dam, as it seemed signficantly higher than the Big Bear Lake station (to the east) itself. We had to estimate a few months based on Lake Arrowhead's more complete and earlier (starting in 1948) records, and used some interpolation. Rest assured we used the best methods to assume a close estimate. Please see the estimated snowfall average for Big Bear Lake Dam below, you will not find it anywhere else as we worked it up ourselves. You will notice the snowfall is heavier at the dam.
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
Big Bear Lake
*1948-1971
estimated		21.617.017.85.71.00000.28.711.180"
Big Bear Lake Dam
1948-1971		37.818.530.715.93.100001.610.613.9132"
Big Bear Lake
1960-2002		14.714.313.83.5.70000.25.99.462"
Big Bear Lake Dam
*1960-2002
estimated		25.715.623.89.82.200001.67.211.898"
Lake Arrowhead
1948-2003
11.89.411.25.61.20000.32.59.647"
 
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