6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Friday, February 3, 2012

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AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR;

-At about 8,000 feet (Aspen): Low 08, High 36 (Highest ~ 51 on February 01, 2003, Lowest ~ -24 on February 01, 1985)
-At about 10,000 feet (Near base elev. for Keystone, Breckenridge, Winter Park); Low 02, High 31 (Highest ~ 54 on January 31, 1992, Lowest ~ -38 on February 01, 1985)
-Approx 13,000 feet (Near the top elevation of many resorts in CO); Low -03, High 20

::: CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN, AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TODAY/ PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/ NEXT SHOT AT SNOW NEXT TUESDAY + WEDNESDAY (MAY MOVE IN LATE MONDAY) :::

DETAILED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK -//> UPDATED FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 3rd...Today --VERY LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TODAY-- -> The focus of best snowfall is along the front range under a northeasterly flow of cross-mountain winds and moisture today as low pressure continues lingering over the area underneath (to the south of) a high pressure ridge to the north. The east wind component against the front range is expected to continue the heavy snow across that area, and light snow west of the divide, with not much accumulation.

Saturday through Monday --PARTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY-- -> We will have to watch for lingering low pressure, which would cause lingering clouds and maybe snow showers on Saturday, otherwise, a pretty ridge of high pressure builds in across the western US and southwest Canada, for clearing skies and chilly temperatures, plus a lot less wind.

Tuesday and Wednesday --NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW-- -> A Pacific low pressure system moves in with another chance for snow across the area. This system looks like it could drop mostly light to moderate snow totals across most of the resort areas. CM

 

Friday Feb 03, 2012 Hi 36°f / 2°c (base) Lo 8°f / -13°c (base) Sky Condition: Mostly cloudy and colder, with lingering snow showers through much of the day. Not much wind is expected. Precipitation: Snow likely. Snow Potential 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: NE at 4-12mph. Above timberline; N at 10-20mph.	Saturday Feb 04, 2012 Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 5°f / -15°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly to at times mostly cloudy and chilly, with mostly light breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph. Above timberline; NW at 5-15mph.	Sunday Feb 05, 2012 Hi 35°f / 2°c (base) Lo 7°f / -14°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and continued chilly, with slightly increased breezes. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20mph.
Monday Feb 06, 2012 Hi 34°f / 1°c (base) Lo 8°f / -13°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly cloudy and not as chilly, with not much wind expected. Precipitation: None expected. Snow Potential None expected. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to SW at 5-15mph. Above timberline; W at 10-20mph.	Tuesday Feb 07, 2012 Hi 39°f / 4°c (base) Lo 12°f / -11°c (base) Sky Condition: Increasing clouds with developing light snow showers. Increased winds are expected. Precipitation: 40% chance for snow. Snow Potential 1 inch of snowfall. Wind: Variable at 4-12mph, increasing to SW at 10-20mph. Above timberline; SW at 15-25 gusts to 35mph.	Wednesday Feb 08, 2012 Hi 40°f / 4°c (base) Lo 14°f / -10°c (base) Sky Condition: Partly Cloudy Precipitation: None expected Wind: SW at up to 5 mph.

Long range forecast / discussion...February 09 to 12

--A storm moves in off the Pacific by the 7th/ 8th, with mostly light to moderate snowfall possible as it moves in out of the southwest/ west. It looks like high pressure ridging across the west may hold until mid February. Despite this ridge, some rogue storms and snowfall are still possible for Colorado from mainly the 10th-15th. We are watching for potentially more significant snow as we move into the 2nd half of February.

We have a moderate La Nina SST pattern in place through the winter, starting to weaken now, and expected to weaken into summer 2012. We expect increased storminess across the west in mid February as the pattern changes back to unsettled. CM